State administration coalition government.. Iraq Turkmen and Article 140
Muhammad Tahsin Kok Kaya
The approval of the Iraqi Council of Representatives of the new election law No. (9) of 2020, which relied on the multiple constituency system (meaning that each governorate consists of several constituencies), independent nomination, and the non-transfer of votes system, were not in favor of the Turkmen; As the division of each province into several constituencies made them lose many votes in their regions, and this affected their declining representation in the legislative authority (parliament), especially the “United Iraq Turkmen Front List,” which is considered the largest unifying bloc of Turkmen parties, which got one representative in all of Iraq.
Fifty days after the polling date, the High Elections Commission announced the final results of the elections (October 10, 2021), which showed the victory of the Sadrist bloc. The Sadrist bloc went to an alliance with the Democratic Party and the Sovereignty Alliance and the formation of the National Salvation Alliance. On the other side was the Coordination Framework bloc (which brings together most of the Shiite political forces) in agreement with the National Union and some Sunni parties represented by the Azm Alliance, who called for the formation of a consensual government under the name of the National Unity Government, provided that it is similar to the previous governments that depend on political quotas.
The ambition of the majority government ended with the Sadrist bloc's deputies submitting their resignations from membership in Parliament on June 12, 2022, and their leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, announcing his withdrawal from the political process after the sit-ins turned into an armed conflict on August 29, 2022; Following the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement, the National Salvation Alliance disintegrated. On the other hand, the coordination framework was able to increase the number of its seats in the parliament by replacing its reserve candidates instead of those who resigned from the Sadrist movement, and after the number of representatives of the coordination framework became 138, the parliamentary bloc became the largest holding the reins of forming the government. Where the coordination framework was able to ally with each of the Sovereignty and Resolve coalitions, the National Union, the Democratic Party, and the Babylonian movement - the Christians -, and they announced it in September 2022 under the name "The State Administration Coalition."
The crisis of Turkmen representation in the Sudanese government
The Turkmen parties remained neutral during the interactions of the two Shiite blocs (the Sadrist movement and the coordination framework), which led to a political impasse and the violation of all constitutional deadlines, which prolonged the government formation period for a full year without reaching a satisfactory solution for both parties. After a year of tensions and escalation between the political forces, the impasse turned into a breakthrough, and as a result, the parties in the state administration coalition agreed to form a government similar to the previous governments, which relies on the basis of consensus and sharing.
The Turkmens were excluded from being part of the state administration coalition that formed the current government, as the Turkmen parties realize that representation in the current government lies through joining the state administration coalition first and then participating in the government, and therefore they are waiting for their invitation to join the coalition and participate in His meetings in order to achieve Turkmen representation in the government of Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, stressing the need to participate in the government in order to find out the course of the files that were agreed upon between the political forces and which were included in the program government, which directly affects the Turkmen and the future of their regions, for example the file of Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution in force.
The Turkmen representatives expressed their condemnation of the continuous method followed by the political blocs in their systematic exclusion from the Iraqi governments and from the meetings of the bloc leaders to discuss national files that affect the lives of all Iraqi people, including the Turkmen, and to discuss sensitive files that should not be discussed without the presence of their representatives. And they fear that the reason for their exclusion from the Council of Ministers is related to the government's intention to give compensation to the Kurdish parties regarding files related to their regions (the disputed areas).
Turkmen concern about returning Article 140 to the table of understandings
After the fall of the former regime in 2003, Iraq witnessed a new political phase, as Paul Bremer, the civil governor of the State Administration Coalition Authority, prepared and enacted the Iraqi State Administration Law for the transitional period, which was voted on on March 8, 2004 by the Governing Council in Iraq. Where the law was a provisional constitution for the country. This law has won the support of some political parties in return for the reservation and objection of other parties. Among the most important articles that the Turkmen objected to is Paragraph (a) of Article (53) and Article (58) of this law because it threatened the future of their regions, and because of the transformation of the provisions of Article (58) in its full form to be Article (140) of the Constitution, which included (Normalization, census, and ends with a referendum in Kirkuk and other disputed areas to determine the will of its citizens), provided that the entire paragraphs of the article are completed within a period not exceeding December 31, 2007. Because of Article (140) in particular, and other articles and paragraphs, the Turkmen objected to the constitution and voted “No” in The permanent Iraqi constitution referendum, which took place on October 15, 2005.
And after the end of the transitional period, the approval of the permanent Iraqi constitution, and the end of the constitutionally specified time period for the implementation of Article 140, it was found that the provisions of the article were not sufficient to solve the problem or the differences over the disputed areas, including the Kirkuk governorate. Because the vision and political dealing with the matter has overshadowed the legal and humanitarian aspects in it, which has created a disparity in the opinions and positions of the components of the province, especially the Turkmen, who consider that the city of Kirkuk is a city of Turkmen specificity that should be preserved and its history and heritage, as well as representing the center of their presence as well. Where they considered that the article threatens their existence in the country and that its application makes them prey to the ruling Kurdish parties in the region. And they stood against making any progress to implement the paragraphs of the article without expelling the displaced Kurds who came to Kirkuk and other Turkmen regions after 2003 with the aim of changing the city's demography.
Just as failure to proceed with the application of Article 140 has become a reason for disagreements between the regional government and the central government, so too have the negotiations between Erbil and Baghdad regarding its application become an element of contention between the Turkmen and the central government.
Sudanese government and Article 140
After the Iraqi Council of Representatives granted, on October 27, 2022, the majority confidence in the cabinet of the government of Muhammad Shia’ al-Sudani, the Turkmen leaders were expressing their fears about the government program and objected to it due to the presence of items and paragraphs that they consider dangerous and threaten social peace and national unity. The meeting of the leaders of the State Administration coalition took place in The home of the Secretary-General of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan on November 28, 2022, in which it took place Discussing the re-formation of the Supreme Committee to activate Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, which should have been finalized in 2007, as specified in the constitution. According to what was stated by the Minister of Justice, Khaled Shawani (a leader in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan); In a statement to Rudaw TV, he indicated that the agreement on reactivating Article 140 comes within the political agreement and government program for the Sudanese.
Where the Turkmen parties and parliamentarians renewed, and through a joint press conference, on December 3, 2022, their position rejecting the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, warning at the same time of the possibility of a “civil war” breaking out in the disputed Kirkuk governorate between Erbil and Baghdad in the event of proceeding. proceed with the procedures for applying this article. They emphasized that the article failed to find sustainable, peaceful solutions to the issue of Kirkuk, and the positive paragraphs in it related to resolving property disputes and returning lands seized by the defunct regime have not been implemented yet.
The purpose and result of raising Article 140
Although most of the paragraphs of those understandings remained stuck without any progress in their implementation, since 2006, and the formation of all governments on the basis of consensus between the political forces, the participating parties signed a paper of understanding that includes articles that are mostly in the interest of their “public”, and that Article 140 of The "controversial" constitution was present in all those ministerial understandings and approaches in order to obtain Kurdish support for passing governments. It is worth noting that the former Iraqi government headed by Mustafa Al-Kazemi did not include Article 140 in its government program.
Since all parties who sign the resumption of work on the procedures of the article that determines the future of the disputed areas are fully aware that the application of that article will be very difficult, specifically not for constitutional or legal reasons, but rather for the serious consequences that accompany the procedures for implementing it. And the three stages of applying the article, which begin with normalization by returning non-native residents to their areas after compensating them financially, and then conducting a census of their residents, to be followed by a popular referendum on their belonging to the government of Baghdad or Erbil. It is difficult to implement in two respects:
The first is that the central government is always facing crucial and sensitive files that threaten the future of the political process. Governments are working to run things without entering into files that are difficult to get out of properly, and the aforementioned article is considered one of those files that threaten national security and expose the country to regional and external interventions. That is, the article is not considered an internal matter only, but rather affects the national security of neighboring countries, and changes the regional and international balances as well, especially with the presence of sensitivity and clear positions by two regional powers, Turkey and Iran, which refuse to establish a Kurdish state on their borders.
The second, after the secession referendum conducted by the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq in September 2017, in which it also included areas outside the borders of the region (latitude 36), such as the entire province of Kirkuk and parts of Salah al-Din, Mosul and Diyala, and not taking into account the fears and warnings of the central government and regional and international countries. The intention of the Kurdish parties to secede from Iraq and divide the country's unity has become clear to the Iraqi political parties and the Iraqi people in general, something that the Turkmen feared and called for its danger. Since it is not possible for the governments in Baghdad to go towards granting the Kurdish parties the right to dispose of the so-called disputed areas, even though they achieved the imposition of the rule of law on those areas on October 16, 2017, after it was absent since 2003. The coordination framework that includes most of the Shiite political parties and forces close to (Tehran) is much stronger than it was in the past. Despite the decline in their seats in the recent elections, they were able to form a strong influence through the current government. It is illogical to think that they are serious about giving up the gains of 2017 and returning things to their previous state. The Sunni parties represented by the alliance of sovereignty close to (Ankara) also have a stronger presence in the current government than previous governments, and they will certainly have a position rejecting the application of Article 140.
As the recent meeting of the leaders of the State Administration Coalition, which was held at Bavel Talabani's house, clearly explains the intention of the coordination framework seeking to restore the strength and popularity of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (the strategic ally of the Shiites), as the internal division and disagreements between the leaders of the first row in the Patriotic Union led to Losing his influence in front of the New Generation Movement, the Democratic Party, and activists from the independents, so in the last two governments they obtained the position of President of the Republic with difficulty. And Khaled Shawani's statement that Mr. Bavel is the one who adopted the activation of Article 140 is intended to send a message to the Kurdish public in the first place that the Patriotic Union is the one who defends Kirkuk and other regions. And the presence of this article on the negotiating table does not go beyond being a paper to put pressure on passing other gains between the political blocs, such as voting on the oil and gas law, for example.
As a result, the political forces represented by the central government will not risk returning Kirkuk and the disputed areas to the situation imposed by the 2003 occupation. As the committee formed for the purpose of implementing the provisions of Article 140 is limited to paying the financial and administrative dues of the committees and bodies that implement the provisions of the constitutional article, especially with regard to Compensation of social groups affected by the article.
Just as the Kurdish parties aim to mobilize their audience by fueling nationalist political files, the Turkmen parties also benefit from that. Because both parties lost their audience, as happened in the recent parliamentary elections, as the events of October 16, 2017 led to fracture within the Kurdish public and a decline in the support of its parties. Likewise, the sense of victory led to comfort or prosperity within the Turkmen public as well. And that some of the parties on both sides rely on hostile rhetoric, in order to gain the support of their audience, especially with the possibility of holding the provincial council elections that were set by the government program, provided that they take place in the first year of the government's life.
