The prospective Iraqi government between the Qat of the inside and the constraints of the outside
Dr. Mohammed Hashem Al-Battat / Professor of Political Science at Al-Mustansiriya University
Turninga hand on the identity determinations of the person whoescaped to win the post of prime minister in Iraq, and then the formation of the Iraqi government with difficult labor as usual, the complexity of the Iraqi political scene leads to the recognition of the existence of a set of internal constraintsandexternal constraints on the blocs.The political situation in Iraq should be taken into consideration if it wants to be able to pass the process of forming the new government, and what is happening in terms of the differences in views on the personalityofthe coordination framework (MohammedDr. Shia Al-Sudani), and the current escalations By the masses of the political trend in the Green Zone and elsewhere, there is no imbalance in the personal identification of the sprinkler H, no matter how much it is covered by the media's passages on the groundas well, in other words, the political blockage in the process of forming the government goes beyond the name of the sprinkler. H to the Prime Minister, is it (X) or (Y), yes, the person who is sprinklerH may contribute to a certain degree to the blockage or détente, but this does not cancel the exponential attachment to other major factors and indicators that must be paid attention to if I want to distance Iraq and Iraqis from the chaos and dialectics of war.
With Qat inside Iraq, who will win the bet?
The Iraqi political scene is mired in its problems and multiplying complexities, and then there are many challenges that the Iraqi government must address according to a conscious scientific strategy, and not the usual improvisations or sweets not patchwork within the rule of (deporting crises not zeroing them) or(anesthetizing wounds not treating them).However, the main obstacles that precede what the next government must do to survive are the obstacles that the prospective government must address to exist, that is, for the government itself to pass and see the light, and the most prominent of these obstacles within the internal map are In finding a real understanding that guarantees the element of containment of the current of the current is not over yet, but is still in its infancy, and the suggestive Friday prayers held by the Drion, and the storming of the headquarters of the Iraqi Council of Representatives and the sit-in in it,Early escalation in determining who will win the bet.
It is a political flatness to argue that the mass resignation of the deputies of the Iraqi Council of Representatives represents a political act, as much as it is an amendment in the rules of political play.From political negotiation under the dome of parliament to negotiation with the pressure card through the Iraqi street, which means the need to find a political agreement that guarantees the current an acceptable ceiling of demands, not least understanding in the form of Salahi for the next government, even if it is short, reassures the people that their waiting for the next elections will not last for four years, in addition togiving guarantees about a form of government that differs from the previous one in terms of characters, visions and program.
It is not possible to say that reaching such an agreement is going in light of the current data, but it is not impossible if it is thought of ways out of the political crisis away from tension, and it is mandatory to get out of thinking with the zero-sum game mentality, for both parties, because such a type of conflict does not benefit political thinking Zero, but rather reducing the ceiling of demands, realistic visions, and logical desires, by all political parties can indicatea good start to political action that leads to a government capable of passing, and political bets must gain their relative gains, and must be made Through compromises that take into account the will of the people, winning the political bet means in its most extreme sense "the highest relative gain."
The samething is said for the political parties of the Syrian and Kurdish despite their differences, they are burdened with differences and growing political rivalries, as the three major companies are suffering under the weight of bilateral divisions that doubt their current status of major obstacles .It can be said that these dualities within the three major Mekonates can be transformed into a positive phenomenon, if they manage to lead in the coming years into (major) bilateral alliances that include a soft representative of the three Makku Nat, enter the elections. Then it is possible to overcome a prominent situation in front of the next government, with conflicts (the majority-al-al-a-faqih), and with the (inclusion of the majority of the three components, notonly one), i.e. doubts the tripartite alliance that won the majority of parliamentary seats in thenext one, while the alliance is The losing trio in the opposition, then a relative way out ofthe main problems in the current Iraqi scene can be found .
The constraints of the Iraqi external, the reassurance of the lost:
Since the American occupation of Iraq in 2003, and the forced change that took place and the overthrow of the regime of the grave tyrant, international and regional actorshave been interfering, influencing and pressuring internal actors according to zigzag curves (up and down) according to external desires that have formed (constraints) inside Iraq. To take it into account, no future Iraqi government can guarantee for itself the passage without obtaining an acceptable degree of understanding with external actors, and that the absence of such trivialitymeans flooding Iraq with crises, and then increasing the burden of qat, and it is enough to notice allWhat happened was a difference in views between the Iraqi government and one of these actors, the level of internal crises towards the government increased, which certainly does not reveal a secret about the extent of external influence in the Iraqi scene.
It is important torefer to the Iraqi political behavior because it did not convincingly and effectively understand the nature of dealing with the outside, as the process of managing international balances in the Iraqi arena needs a state of realistic reassurance to external actors that the Iraqi government does not antagonize these actors. The previous Iraqi governments, in the sentence not the sentence, tend to one party withoutanother significantly provokes the other party, and makes it useful for the tools of internal influence to change the political equation to a situation that suits it, and it is not related to the fact that the political inclination of this bloc A and that , the tendencies The political situation is a fait accompli, and the political culmination is notideological, a fixed fact, andwe are talking here about a strategy(cognitive reassurance of external actors), orreassuringthe foreign political person that The international balance is taken into account, and this is dictated by political realism, or talking about the lackof interventions, or the possibility of absolute distancing from Iraq and its young experience fromothers, these are wishes we wish, but not everythingthat the "people" wishes to realize, as the lack of politics is driven by data andconstraints, not by wishes.
From here, we must emphasize the missing reassurance, and search for indicators that contribute to finding it if I want to work onpassing a new government that contributes, even partially and temporarily, to solving the current complexities in the political situation. The internal negotiations to understand the acceptable solutions to their obstacles, and at the same time , work to activate the external negotiations to agree on the acceptable limit of constraints to reassure the various external parties on the acceptable limits of difference within the Iraqi scene; It is more complex for the deep extent of overlap and entanglement between external and internal visions, and the factors affectingthe Iraqi scene in general.
