The Competition for Spheres of Influence between the United States and China: The South China Sea Region and Latin America

The Competition for Spheres of Influence between the United States and China: The South China Sea Region and Latin America

Iman Al-Fakharani

Any country in the world has several geographical regions surrounding it, and its national security is affected by the security and stability of these geographical regions, whether this influence is negative or positive. And just as the United States considered itself responsible for Latin America, the geographical area of the South China Sea was anciently an integral part of the Chinese empire, which China now seeks to include within its sovereignty, but the state of international relations is witnessing from competition between China and the United States in many regions of the world and considering each The other is a threat and a competitor to it, which has prevented the security and stability of their areas of influence, whether it is the South China Sea or Latin America. This is because both the United States and China pursue a strategy in one way or another against their opponent in their sphere of influence. In an attempt to exploit the importance of this region for the national security of his opponent and harm his vital interests, and then gain a competitive advantage against his opponent.

The United States, perhaps a decade or more ago, has worked to increase its military presence in the South China Sea region in a way that provokes China to the sea’s convergence with China’s eastern coastal shores, and it may suggest to non-specialist observers of global events that there are harbingers of an upcoming war. As a result of the American military provocation of China on the one hand and the restraint exercised by China on the other hand, which may deviate from it at times; Because many US military vessels pass through waters that China claims to have historical rights over without prior Chinese permission, which China, on the other hand, sees as a derogation of its sovereign rights and harm to its national security.

As for the Chinese presence in Latin America, although it is fundamentally different from the American presence in the China Sea in terms of its focus mainly on the economic factor, for the United States it is a threat to its interests in its backyard. Especially when the volume of bilateral trade between China and Latin American countries increased to 300 billion dollars in the period between 2000 and 2019, and Chinese loans to Latin American countries increased to 137 billion dollars in 2019, and the United States considers the Chinese economic growth in Latin America or any region in general as a beginning. The Chinese infiltration, in a way that harms its influence and influence on the decisions of Latin American countries in the future, and some analysts of international relations view the Chinese presence in Latin America as a natural and similar reaction to the US military presence in the China Sea, just as the United States is present in the South China Sea region Chinese sphere of influence China is present in Latin America, the sphere of influence of the United States, and this paper seeks to discuss these strategies in detail by answering a major question: how is the competition between the United States and China in the South China Sea region and Latin America?

Through the following axes:-

1- The importance of spheres of influence (South China Sea and Latin America)

2- The American presence in the South China Sea

3- The Chinese presence in Latin America

The first axis: - the importance of spheres of influence (South China Sea and Latin America)

First: the South China Sea

Before President Barack Obama came to power in the United States and the beginning of his adoption of the East Asian orientation strategy, this region was previously included in a paper titled Defense Planning Guide by Paul Wolfowitz, among the regions that the United States must pay attention to; Through the control of a country over one of these regions, forces that oppose American global influence will appear in the future. However, a comprehensive strategy towards China was not adopted until Obama announced a strategy for rebalancing in East Asia, after sensing the first threat to American global influence from the growing Chinese ascendancy. Whether economically or in terms of military development, China is now seeking to control the South China Sea by building several artificial islands and attaching them to a number of military bases above these islands. Thus, China will be the first of the countries in the regions referred to by Wolfowitz that seek to threaten American global influence. The South China Sea region is one of the areas that, if a country gains control over it, forces will emerge that challenge the global influence of the United States. Where the South China Sea represents the heart of the marine land in Southeast Asia, as pointed out by Robert Kaplan, controlling the South China Sea gives an opportunity to control one of the most important ports of global trade.

1- The importance of the South China Sea for China

When defining the goals that China wants to achieve from its constant endeavor to make the South China Sea an area of Chinese sovereignty, we find that its most important goals are mainly economic and affect its national security. To 22 billion barrels of oil and between 19 to 290 trillion cubic meters, it may have moved China's feelings to take full control of them without the participation of other countries, and that the end of four sea routes to transport oil energy estimated at 82% of all its imports to China takes place through the passage of the South China Sea Therefore, it was natural for China, and as a result of the importance of energy for the Chinese economy, to seek to secure the South China Sea for its oil imports, especially when China felt that as a result of the American presence in the China Sea and the Indian and Pacific Oceans and the American-Chinese competition, the United States might close the Malacca Strait, which represents a threat to trade lines. Maritime China, and by maintaining the security of the flow of energy imports to China, the stability of the energy-dependent Chinese economy will be maintained, and then the demands of the middle class will be met and China's national security will be preserved. But this does not mean that China has other goals, as there may be a strategic goal that is consistent with China's long-term policy. Twenty years ago, China began planning phases for the complete exit of the United States from the South China Sea region, and we are at the beginning of the third and final stage from 2020 to 2040, and in terms of controlling the South China Sea and making it a vital area for it and ending the conflict with the ASEAN countries, China has struck a strong blow. In the structure of global US influence, both goals, whether economic or strategic, are no less important than the other for China.

2- The importance of the South China Sea to the United States

It comes in contrast to China's goals behind its strategy in the South China Sea, the goals of the United States. It seems that the United States has no ambitions in the wealth of the South China Sea, because there are at least unofficial participations to help ASEAN countries extract oil and gas, except when China forced three American companies Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and ConocoPhillips to suspend their agreements with PetroVietnam, and there were no official government permits. It expresses the desire of the United States for the participation of ASEAN countries in the oil production of the South China Sea. Despite this, the interest of the United States in maintaining the sea lanes in the South China Sea is not denied, but the United States has a strategic goal behind its military presence in the China Sea, which is an attempt to surround China has a number of allies of the United States; Several opinions have emerged that believe that the South China Sea region is one of the first areas on which the future of the international system will be determined, and therefore it seeks to preserve the rules that support the current system by limiting China in its regional sphere.

Second: Latin America

The Chinese presence in Latin America was not recent and related to the state of US-Chinese competition. China's relationship with Latin America began long before that. During the reign of Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong, relations with Latin America revolved around exporting the Maoist revolution, but this policy did not last. With the beginning of the Chinese economic reform period that began since Deng Xiaoping took over, China searched for Regions rich in resources to link them to the emerging Chinese economy, and Latin America was among these regions that it included in its development strategy in addition to Africa and Southeast Asia, so the beginnings of the Chinese presence in Latin America were with purely economic goals, but this presence is now seen as a reaction and as a Chinese policy to confront the policy The American focus is in East Asia, specifically in the South China Sea, and it is no longer an existence caused only by searching for economic resources. As for the United States; The importance of Latin America is that it is a safe market for American products, far from African markets where competition is with Chinese products, and that the Latin American region is a fertile ground for the growth of revolutionary ideas that the United States is fighting globally. The existence of such ideas alongside the world of liberalism led by the United States represents a threat to its national security, so it was natural for the United States to fight countries such as Cuba and Venezuela and to seek to prevent the spread of such ideas in the rest of the continent.

1- The importance of the South China Sea for China

But this does not mean that China has other goals, as there may be a strategic goal that is consistent with China's long-term policy. Twenty years ago, China began planning phases for the complete exit of the United States from the South China Sea region, and we are at the beginning of the third and final stage from 2020 to 2040, and in terms of controlling the South China Sea and making it a vital area for it and ending the conflict with the ASEAN countries, China has struck a strong blow. In the structure of global US influence, both goals, whether economic or strategic, are no less important than the other for China.

2- The importance of the South China Sea to the United States

Second: Latin America

The second axis: - the American presence in the South China Sea

Considering China by successive US administrations before Obama assumed power as a strategic partner under Clinton, and another time as a strategic competitor that must be contained under Bush Jr. reflects the different perspectives that assess China's rising power resulting from The different personalities of the presidents of the United States, and he may not appreciate the importance of this difference of perspectives compared to the development of a new US foreign policy, the policy of heading east; Because it was able to convince the makers of American foreign policy that the threat of terrorism and the wars waged against the countries of the Middle East is not as great as the danger of the rise of an East Asian power that threatens the global position of the United States, and thus it was able to move the weight of American foreign policy from one region to another from the Middle East and North Africa to another. The Far East, specifically the South China Sea region. In successive administrations after Obama, the policy of heading east was not abandoned, even if the methods of dealing with China differed.

The United States realized the centrality of the South China Sea to the rise of China and its importance to China's national security, so it worked to exploit the sensitivity of this region for China, and linked its national interest to the issue of the dispute in the South China Sea region, as stated by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, even with the advent of Donald Trump's administration to power after Obama considered the region of the Indian and Pacific oceans to be the most important geographic regions for American foreign policy, and thus the importance of the South China Sea region emerged for the American strategy to contain China in its Asian region, and we can note that the US strategy in the South China Sea seeking to limit Chinese influence relied on three methods, namely Military presence and freedom of maritime navigation and interference to impede the existence of a solution to the issue of maritime borders in the China Sea.

First: - The American strategy in the South China Sea

1- The US military presence in the South China Sea

The United States has diversified its military presence in the South China Sea region. Between military exercises with its allied countries such as the Cobra Gold exercise, which is the largest multilateral military exercise in Asia, the Balikatan maneuver and the edge of the Pacific Ocean with the Philippines and the Malabar tripartite with India and Japan, and between defense security agreements with the ASEAN countries that are in dispute with China over their rights in the China Sea South Korea such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, in addition to its security alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, and between the steady deployment of American forces such as the US Forces Command in Japan USFJ and the US Forces Command in South Korea USFK, and there are four air bases in the Philippines and a base in Darwin, Australia And air and sea intelligence bases in Midway, the Northern Mariana Islands, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. The American air presence on the Philippine island of Luzon may enable the United States to follow it with a military naval presence that closes the Luzon Strait, which connects the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea in the Pacific Ocean.

The current Biden administration also seeks to focus on the importance of US alliances in Southeast Asia to confront China. Where a tripartite AUKUS agreement was established that includes the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia to deploy submarines carrying nuclear warheads in the Pacific Ocean near China, and after the announcement of this agreement, Biden renewed the return of the security quadruple axis that includes the United States, Australia, India and Japan, and the Five Eyes intelligence agreement that English-speaking countries including the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand may see a change in terms of the type of countries that will be included in the future; There are efforts within the US Senate to expand the scope of the agreement countries to include India, Japan, Germany and South Korea, and these countries are mostly allies of the United States and share competition with China.

2- Freedom of navigation in the South China Sea

One of the most provocative military actions China sees is FONOPS; Because on the one hand, the United States has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea while it defends freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and on the other hand, the United States has not heeded China's repeated warnings about the passage of parts of its military tankers without prior permission from China, which it considers the latter an encroachment on its sovereign territory; The passage of US aircraft carriers and many ships of the US Navy takes place near China's naval facilities in the Spartellis and Parcels Islands, although there were provocative US military naval operations as described by some under Obama's rule, but these naval operations - whether they are sea passage or conducting maneuvers - we find that they have increased in light of the tense US-Chinese relations during Trump's rule; Six naval maneuvers were conducted in 2018 in disputed waters, and it increased by eight in 2019/2020. As for the number of US naval traffic operations, it was estimated to be approximately fifteen times since Trump took office.

And after Biden's call for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea course, maritime operations are no longer limited to the passage of US military vessels only, but rather some European countries and India participated in the American provocative method against China. The French Minister of Defense, Florence Parly, announced that there are two ships belonging to the French Navy that sailed in the South China Sea to confirm freedom of navigation. The reason for sending a warship to the South China Sea is that it aims to maintain stability in the region and respect for international law, and the Indian Ministry of Defense confirmed that it will send a task force consisting of four ships to conduct exercises in the South China Sea with Japan, the United States and Australia, and Australia has also confirmed Australia's maritime rights In the South China Sea, where the Chinese Navy detected three Australian warships passing through the China Sea.

3- Maritime dispute in the South China Sea

The limits of the American presence in Southeast Asia in general and the South China Sea in particular did not stop at the military side only, so it took advantage of the crisis that China is going through and the ASEAN countries that have maritime rights in the South China Sea to put pressure on China on the other hand. The United States wants to obstruct COC negotiations on the issue of the maritime dispute in the China Sea; By intervening through its allied countries in the region and a major party to the conflict such as Vietnam, in a report issued by the American Council on Foreign Relations urging the United States to seek with countries in the region with similar thinking to find a strategy to resist Chinese threats in the China Sea, so when it took over Vietnam Presidency of the Thirty-sixth and Thirty-seventh Summit Conference called for a legal commitment regarding the maritime dispute in the China Sea to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and not to abide by the complex Code of Conduct between China and ASEAN countries 2001, and China had previously blamed the United States for failing to issue a joint statement on the issue of the South China Sea ; Because of the United States' desire to add contents to the statement that were not discussed during the meeting.

Second: - Chinese strategy in the South China Sea

It is natural for the US strategy in the China Sea to be confronted with a counter-Chinese strategy as a result of the vital importance that the China Sea represents to China's national security. We find that China has relied on an internal strategy in the China Sea and an external strategy, so externally; The Chinese strategy is trying to breach US military rule in the China Sea by launching global projects that link its economy to the global economy. Such as the Belt and Road project, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the Made in China 2025 project, which received wide acceptance from countries of the world except for the United States, which failed to prevent countries from joining it, even its allies. The scope of the South China Sea region, and thus China circumvented the US strategy in the South China Sea by linking its economy to the economies of several countries in the world, and was able to reduce the possibility of curtailing Chinese influence in the Asian regional environment. China is also looking for alternative ways to the South China Sea - despite its importance to China - to secure its maritime trade lines from the potential American threat. Such as the Isthmus of Christmus Canal as an alternative to the Strait of Malacca, the Pakistani Development Corridor 2015. Instead of most of China's maritime lines relying on its eastern mainland, western China will be linked to the Pakistani port of Gwadar, and thus the threat of the US military presence on China's oil imports will be avoided.

As for internally

China realizes two things, the first of which is that it is impossible for a direct military clash between it and the United States to take place because the American and Chinese military forces possess nuclear weapons and equipment with a devastating effect. The second thing is that China has the advantage in the South China Sea, so we find that China, despite the military provocations and diplomatic attack The US did not stop building and drilling operations in the South China Sea, so China began gradually seizing islands from the Spartellis and Parcels and building military bases on them such as Miss Schiff, Fairly Cross, Wasabi in Spartellis, the base of Woody Island, Terry and the North Island in Parcells, and building a barrier consisting of fifty islands Industrialized and transformed into a semi-enclosed body of water to control passing ships, pushing the United States back and away from the China Sea. Through China’s increasing aggressions against the sovereign rights of its neighboring countries in the South China Sea, such as the military threat to Vietnam in 2017, as it did not stop drilling in its exclusive economic zone, and its presence near islands under the sovereignty of other countries, such as the presence of the Chinese Coast Guard in the vicinity of the Philippine island of Thito and Luconia Souls. Malaysia, the placement of a device for oil exploration in waters disputed with Vietnam in 2014, its seizure of the Scarborough Shoal Islands from the Philippines in 2012, the People's Liberation Army's deployment of advanced weapons in the South China Sea such as the test firing of Chinese anti-aircraft missiles DF-26, want to send A message to regional countries and the United States that it forcibly controls the South China Sea and flouts international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, especially when China issued the Coast Guard Law in January 2021 that gives the Coast Guard forces to fire on foreign ships operating within the nine-line line that China demands it.

The third axis: - the Chinese presence in Latin America

The economic factor is the factor that has been greatly focused on in building the Chinese strategy in Latin America, and perhaps China’s reliance on only one factor may cause a shortcoming in its strategy, but it gives more credibility and transparency to the reasons for its growing presence in Latin America, where it has become an important economic partner with Most Latin American countries, in a 2019 survey conducted by the Pew Research Center on the perceptions of citizens in Latin American countries, nearly half of the participants expressed positive opinions about China, while about 42% expressed negative opinions about China, and China is perhaps seeking its presence in the continent Latin America to make it an arena for competition with the United States instead of the South China Sea region, but the essence of the Chinese strategy through which China will manage the competition with the United States does not depend on the military aspect, as China still cannot manage the People's Liberation Army outside its national domain, so it adopted The Chinese strategy in its presence in Latin America is to develop trade exchange with Latin American countries.

First: - The Chinese strategy in Latin America

China's economic strategy moves can be monitored by strengthening its relationship with Latin American countries in two ways

1- Increasing investments and developing trade relations

China considered Latin American countries a rich source of resources needed by the Chinese economy, whether food, oil or mineral, so it concluded strategic partnership agreements bilaterally with many Latin American countries, the first of which was Venezuela 2001 - which has the largest oil reserves in the world - and Mexico 2003 And Argentina 2004, in addition to considering Brazil, Chile, Ecuador and Peru comprehensive strategic partners for China, so these countries export to China its mineral and food needs and import technological equipment from China. and the Caribbean Sea.

China worked to connect Latin American countries more with Chinese investments. Through China's invitation to Latin American countries to join the Asian Development Bank, which Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil and Chile joined, and the Belt and Road Initiative. Despite the fact that Latin America is far from the lines of the Belt and Road Initiative, President Xi Jinping considered it a natural extension of the Maritime Silk Road, which it welcomed It has nineteen Latin American countries, but Mexico, Brazil and Colombia are still hesitant despite their good economic relationship with China, and through the establishment of a joint financing fund for Latin American and Caribbean countries in 2013, because borrowing from China has an advantage over borrowing from the United States or from the World Bank Because there are no strict conditions.

2- Infrastructure projects

Between 2005 and 2020, according to data from the Chinese Academic Network in Latin America, China submitted 138 projects in the infrastructure basics of Latin American countries, for example, the Pilger Ano freight project was implemented in Argentina, the subway project in Colombia, the cloud railway project in Brazil, and others. In Mexico and Jamaica's northern route, but in fact the infrastructure projects funded by China for Latin American countries were not only in their interest, as the Chinese side dealt with some pragmatism. These projects also served the Chinese side's interest in terms of facilitating access to the resources and wealth of Latin American countries. Whether through the ports or the railways that financed it.

In addition to the role that China plays through its presence in multilateral Latin American organizations, such as its request to obtain observer status in 2004 instead of Taiwan in the Organization of American States, a member of the East Asian and Latin American Cooperation Forum in 2001 and in the Latin American Parliament in 2004, and a member of the Joint Committee Between the Inter-American Development Bank 2008 and its initiation of a series of dialogues with the Organization of Andean States and Mercosur.

But although China relies heavily on the economic factor in its strategy for Latin America, we cannot only say that it aims to open markets for its investments and obtain a source for the flow of its basic economic resources. Where the People's Liberation Army built a space station for tracking satellites in Argentina to respond to the series of American bases in Southeast Asia, and there may be another in the Strait of Magellan linking the Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean, and perhaps the policies of Latin American countries faced pressure from Chinese investment companies to recognize With the one-China policy, because of the size and importance of Chinese trade and investment relations for El Salvador, the Dominican Republic and Panama, their diplomatic relationship with Taiwan was abandoned, and Taiwan now has nine allies in Latin America after they were fifteen.

Second: - The American strategy in Latin America

The United States' increasing interest in many other regions of the world, especially the Middle East and Southeast Asia, led to the neglect of its first area of influence, Latin America, in a way that allowed the Chinese giant, its current first competitor, to expand in the region, but despite the Obama administration's shifting attention to Southeast Asia In order to curtail Chinese influence there, however, there was intense interest from the Obama administration when Biden was vice president, but this intense interest did not overcome the decline in American influence in Latin America that Biden and before him Obama referred to, so the current administration is working to restore the influence of the United States in Latin America, but faces the obstacle of Chinese investments there, so the solution presented by the Biden administration was to find a more attractive American economic alternative to the Chinese alternative. Aspects of the American strategy to counter Chinese influence in Latin America can be monitored. On the one hand, the United States has invited some officials from Latin American countries Panama, Colombia and Ecuador to identify basic projects for preparing an American initiative alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative, and on the other hand, it is working to increase the proposed capital of the International Development Bank. On the other hand, it is trying to build a good image and a positive impression by confirming the return of humanitarian aid and financial incentives that were cut off during the Trump era.

Conclusion

Despite the statements made by Chinese officials that the American presence in the South China Sea region affects China's national security, and the statements of their American counterparts that the Chinese presence in the Latin American region threatens American influence in it, the American-Chinese competition in each other's areas of influence did not subside. So far, to the extent that we have decided that there will be a serious impact on US-Chinese relations, and then this impact will have a negative impact on global stability and security. Because on the one hand, both countries realize that their possession of an arsenal of nuclear weapons will deter both from initiating direct harm to the interest of the other. On the other hand, we did not find that there is a general level of competition over spheres of influence between the United States and China through which we can say that this competition will develop in the future to take the form of a struggle between them in these two regions. For its part, the United States deals with a military and political logic in its strategy to compete with China in the South China Sea region, while China, on its part, deals with an economic logic, although it has some strategic and political goals, but it is still somewhat shy in the Latin American region. The Chinese military presence in Latin America is still It ranges from conducting military exercises and arms sales, even port rental deals from Latin American countries that still - despite the low possibility that China will use them for purposes of spying on the United States - revolve around the peaceful use and for commercial purposes of the Maritime Silk Line, and this difference in how it manages The competition between China and the United States in their spheres of influence makes the South China Sea region more interesting and attractive to researchers and readers than the Latin American region.

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