ISIS and the possibility of repeating the tower war tactic scenario

Ali Najat - Writer and researcher specializing in Middle Eastern affairs and Islamic movements.

the introduction

In late 2017, ISIS started a new war in Iraq, from targeting electricity transmission towers and oil pipelines, to bombing water stations and blowing up bridges and railway lines in western Iraq. In fact, ISIS implemented a scorched earth strategy after suffering heavy defeats to the Iraqi army and losing territory, especially in the city of Mosul. The scorched earth policy is a military strategy or method of operations in which anything that the enemy might benefit from when advancing or retreating in an area is burned.

After the loss and failure of ISIS to control the liberated cities, the organization resorted to economic warfare tactics in many Iraqi cities. Over the past five years, the organization’s attacks on the economic infrastructure in Iraq amounted to 424 attacks, including 304 attacks in 2020 and 2021. . The objectives vary between artesian wells, oil and gas infrastructure, crops, and electricity and water supplies. August of the year 2021, a series of attacks targeting electric power transmission towers, causing power paralysis, and power outages in cities for days, and ISIS adopted the operations in a visual version that it had published earlier. Regarding the intensification of operations to destroy power towers, this suffices. In only eight months of 2021, ISIS destroyed nearly 200 electricity towers in different regions of Iraq.

So, the main question that arises is: Does ISIS use the tower war tactic with the onset of summer, the very high temperatures, and the increase in Iraq's need for electricity? To answer this question, the research structure has been divided into three sections. After analyzing the situation of ISIS forces and their facilities in Iraq, the scenario of the tactic of destroying the energy towers in Iraq will be tested, and in the end some recommendations will be mentioned for the need to take countermeasures.

The status of ISIS forces and facilities in Iraq

After three and a half years of battles, the Iraqi government announced in December 2017 the restoration of control over all Iraqi territory from the terrorist organization ISIS, which it took control of in 2014, but a year after declaring its defeat, the organization's activities escalated, and it still launches from time to time. Attacks targeting civilians and military personnel, but they did not reach the level of military occupation of cities and villages. ISIS terrorist attacks in Iraq were fluctuating, since August 2020 Iraq witnessed 100 ISIS attacks, but December of the same year witnessed the fewest casualties since the outbreak of battles in 2014, but it has returned and intensified since the beginning of 2021 ( )

According to the statistics of the Amaq Foundation and the Al-Naba’ weekly of the terrorist organization ISIS, the number of attacks carried out in 2020 reached about 1,422, including suicide, booby-trapping and sniper operations, which left 2,748 martyrs and wounded. The organization carried out 1,079 attacks in 2021 and more than 200 attacks in the period from January to April 2022.( )

Estimates in Iraq during the past two years indicate that the organization has sufficient strength to carry out terrorist operations, and the United Nations counter-terrorism official, Vladimir Veronkov, explains in August 2020 that more than 10,000 ISIS fighters are active in Iraq and Syria, while a report issued by The Committee to Punish Al Qaeda and ISIS of the United Nations Security Council in February 2021 stated that ISIS currently has 10,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq, most of them in Iraq, after a while their number in early 2021 was estimated at 6,000 fighters, but given the arrests and killing of many of them, they can now be estimated at 5,000 fighter, and in addition to this they have 5,000 others as a sleeper force working on logistical support. ( )

According to reports issued by the United Nations in February 2021, the financial resources of ISIS are estimated at more than $100 million. ( ) In addition to owning limited proceeds from drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion and taking royalties, and through  Field visits to Iraqi security officials confirmed that ISIS was able to finance itself by smuggling drugs, and the Anbar desert witnessed many times the transfer of shipments of drugs through its territory. The tribes are self-financing, engaging in illegal economic activities with new emerging actors involved in commodity smuggling and illegal trade in cigarettes, medicines, weapons, oil, drugs, antiquities, scrap metal, copper, cement, foodstuffs and electronics. It is worth noting that the revenues that ISIS earns provide it with the funds necessary to carry out its terrorist attacks, obtain weapons, food, medicine, vehicles, and everything necessary for the continuation of the organization and the continuation of its rebellious activities, in addition to recruiting new elements. It can be said that despite the defeat of ISIS on the ground, the ISIS gangs have sufficient financial resources to continue their activities and carry out terrorist operations, but they are unable to occupy cities. In other words, there is a great possibility to eliminate ISIS, but its fighters will remain on the scene of events, reproducing the experience of al-Qaeda. Therefore, ISIS is currently following in the footsteps of al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia after its defeat in 2007 and the years preceding 2013, and before it occupied any geographical area, and in order to establish its presence on the ground, it used different combat tactics, so what it focuses on now is the implementation of multiple terrorist operations, And work on insecurity in some parts of Iraq, and given that their numbers have decreased from what they were in 2014 and 2015, or the years preceding the establishment of the caliphate in Mosul, they have focused on increasing terrorist attacks, especially against the security forces, instead of reoccupying lands in some provinces Especially in Kirkuk, Salah al-Din, Anbar and Diyala squares, in which the organization claims to have the ability to recruit and create sleeper cells.

Taking advantage of its knowledge of the terrain, remote areas, desert space, mountains, mobile groups, numerous cells, and supporters in Iraq, ISIS can operate and carry out various types of attacks in many areas, such as Anbar, North Baghdad, Kirkuk, Salah ad-Din, Nineveh, Diyala, and Tigris/ Diyala. Babylon, the island, the desert of the Euphrates, Fallujah, and a large area in the south, which is called the southern sector. With regard to the areas where ISIS is present, it must be noted that their large presence is on Kanous Island in Nineveh, due to the difficulty of crossing to it and the density of trees in it, as well as in Wadi Tharthar in Salah al-Din Governorate and the Qara Jokh mountain range in the city of Makhmour, southeast of the Nineveh Mountains and the Makhoul Mountains. The Hamrin mountain range spread over the three governorates of Diyala, Salah al-Din and Kirkuk in northern Iraq, and it is a main base and real starting point for ISIS attacks in large areas from those provinces to the outskirts of Baghdad. This prompted ISIS to use these areas as a safe haven for its gangs. After the defeat of ISIS at the end of 2017 and its expulsion from all the lands it controlled, its secret activities did not stop. With the aim of reorganizing it and its activity, so that after five years of defeating it, it still has enough power to destabilize and destabilize Iraqi cities. Despite the clear progress achieved by the security forces in the fight against ISIS during the past two years, which resulted in the killing of a number of senior ISIS leaders and the destruction of its cells and hideouts, there are still areas in Iraq, especially in the north and west, especially the “Kirkuk, Salah al-Din, Anbar and Diyala” squares. Repeated terrorist attacks, and ISIS maintained its hierarchical structure, even after the assassination of its senior leaders, as it appointed rulers and leaders from different regions to continue its operations and activities. In light of the lack of forces and the decrease in funding, ISIS is now unable to return and occupy Iraqi cities, because its fighting method of bombing and sporadic sniping confirms its inability to confront the Iraqi security forces and the army to control geographical areas. It also appears that the intensive military efforts in Iraq during the past five months, and the continued pursuit of ISIS remnants, have contributed to a decline in violence and terrorist attacks, both at the level of the liberated areas, some of whose outskirts are still considered hideouts for ISIS elements; Or in Baghdad and the rest of the cities that no longer witness any security threats as in previous years, while the Iraqi forces are still combing the northern and western regions, including Nineveh, Kirkuk, Diyala, Salah al-Din, Anbar and the suburbs of Baghdad, in addition to the continuous air strikes to target the organization's movements.

Operation Solid Will made progress in searching remote and desert areas, especially the Hatra desert in Nineveh, all the way to the deserts of Anbar and Salah al-Din governorates, as it was able to uncover about 10 headquarters that were considered shelters for ISIS members, in addition to logistical materials, and destroyed stacks of equipment. Tunnels and detonating mines planted on the roads. And the Iraqi forces announced the death of a number of members of the organization during the confrontations. Security leaders believe that the organization is no longer able to confront directly with the Iraqi forces, but it may continue ambushes to hunt security personnel and civilians, and the most important thing is that its attacks have decreased significantly, due to being besieged in areas known and identified by the security authorities, and that it is gradually ending. ( )

ISIS and the tactic of destroying power towers in Iraq

After the defeat in Iraq, ISIS tried to come back and regain its capacity by adopting different tactics and strategies. Meanwhile, one of the strategies and tactics ISIS gangs have recently developed in order to reach the peak of their power is: economic warfare. This strategy includes attacks on homes and farms, destruction of crops, and attacks on public and private infrastructure facilities, such as gas stations, oil wells, oil and gas pipelines, water supply facilities, electricity pylons, and telecommunications towers. The organization launched more than 400 attacks in Iraq during 2021, which represents 80 percent of the organization's global economic war operations. The former caliph, Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi, ordered his men to launch an economic invasion against Iraq, by attacking the transmission towers of electric power and threatening the Iraqi market. While ISIS published in its weekly newsletter, Al-Naba, that it was within seventy days, from May 1 to July 8. 2021, under the title “Economic Invasion,” 75 major energy transmission towers were blown up in northern and northeastern Iraq, especially the “Al-Mersad Line” linking with Iran in Diyala Governorate, and the Iraqi Security Information Unit announced, on July 3, 2021, that 61 towers were destroyed. Energy for sabotage operations in a few days, and since then many transmission towers have been subjected to sabotage attacks as well. ISIS destroyed nearly 200 electricity pylons in Iraq in just eight months of 2021. In March 2022, the attacks, which ISIS members are accused of carrying out, returned against electric power transmission lines and towers in the west of the country. The attacks are concentrated in the provinces of Anbar, Diyala, and Salah al-Din, as well as the Jurf al-Sakhar area, south of the capital, Baghdad. The Iraqi security forces face great challenges in stopping these attacks. Because these towers are located in remote areas that are not monitored or inhabited, which makes the movements of ISIS elements in them normal. Iraq has about 40,000 super towers for power transmission, of which more than 19,000 are located in the north and east of the country, most of which pass through desert areas and vast open lands that are difficult to control in terms of security. ISIS terrorists are destroying power towers with different methods and tactics. At first, only explosive devices were used, but progress was made in the process, such as booby-trapping the towers with explosive belts and time bombs, directing missiles at the towers to bring them down completely, and using snipers to target power wires, by sniping and cutting them. As for the goal of ISIS targeting energy towers, it is to create chaos and security anxiety in Iraq. That is, the aim of ISIS attacks on the electricity sector is to aggravate the government's position and stir up the street, in addition to confusing the security scene throughout the country. ISIS usually uses the tactic of war of energy towers in conjunction with the rise in temperatures in most Iraqi governorates to more than 50 degrees Celsius, and in fact ISIS resorts to these actions in order to increase the pain of people to mobilize them and start a new wave of protests. It should be noted that creating a wave of unrest and a security vacuum in Iraq is very important for ISIS. Because the existence of a fragile government and the consequent security vacuum may lead to the restoration of the strength of ISIS, one of the most important factors that led to the emergence of ISIS in 2013 in the cities of Iraq is the security vacuum, political, religious and ethnic differences, and the lack of cohesion between the political fabric, and these tensions have created fertile ground In order to exploit ISIS and expand its influence and control, especially in the areas of the Sunni component, after repeated Sunni protests and the continuation of the dispute with the government and the failure to find effective and comprehensive solutions, ISIS groups sought to influence this gap and exploit it fully, and for this reason it can be said that the unrest will lead to the resurgence of ISIS renewed. In fact, one of the important factors in the emergence and increase of ISIS activity and the expansion of its geographical area in 2013 and 2014 is the security vacuum, as Abdullah bin Muhammad, one of the theorists of the Salafi-jihadi movement, states in the book of the strategic memorandum: “Islamic jihadist groups can attract other people, revive the caliphate, and establish a state Islamic through instability and security chaos.” In this context, it can be said that the deteriorating political situation in 2019 and 2020 increased the strength of ISIS. After the start of the October demonstrations, which later turned into chaos, the government gave most of its attention to the outbreak of demonstrations, instead of From continuing to hunt down sleeper cells, as well as entering Iraq with a security-political vacuum after the resignation of former Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, as he changed the compass of the security forces’ direction from purging sleeper cells and repelling conventional attacks to preoccupation with the fragile political situation. Recently, the cities of central and southern Iraq have been witnessing demonstrations and vigils, some of which included blocking main roads and attacking government departments, due to the decline in the rate of electricity supply to cities, in light of the high temperatures and the continuing water scarcity crisis. The caretaker government in Iraq headed by Mustafa Al-Kazemi and several political forces view this with great concern. The situation in Basra in particular does not seem encouraging, as the humidity began to rise with the temperatures and the electricity was cut off, and the owners of the generators manipulated the operating and shutdown times under various pretexts, including the failure of the government to provide fuel at a reduced price or because of breakdowns as a result of continuous operation.( ) In addition, Iraq is facing A political crisis to form the government has been going on for several months, and the continuation of this crisis may lead to the spread of protests and lead to large demonstrations in various Iraqi cities. If the protests spread, ISIS will try to take advantage of the security vacuum and multiply the problems for the people by destroying the electricity pylons. In addition, Abu al-Hasan al-Quraishi, the new leader of ISIS, resembles a black box, and is exposed to the camouflage process that the organization has practiced in recent years, by giving its main leaders a large number of names and nicknames, in an attempt to protect their true identity from Arab and foreign intelligence agencies. It is expected that the new leader will follow the same path, and will continue to attempt attacks throughout Iraq, and may have his own vision of how to carry out the attacks. Especially since the new leader may have more military qualifications than Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi. It is possible that ISIS attacks and operations may change depending on the style and context of the new leader if the new leader believes in large-scale attacks, the use of bombs and suicide attacks. Therefore, the scenario of intensification and escalation of terrorist operations by the new leader of ISIS, Abi al-Hasan al-Quraishi, in the near future, with the aim of proving his presence and presenting the image of a strong leader, as well as attracting and attracting supporters and motivating ISIS forces in various countries, is possible.

Tower warfare tactics and the need for countermeasures

It has been clear for some time that ISIS has not been defeated and continues to pose a threat to the security and stability of Iraq, and the entire region, in which it is primarily active and where its entire central command is located. Thus, it is unlikely that the threat posed by the organization in Iraq will be eliminated in the short term, whatever the military and political strategy that will be decided. It should be noted that the use of the tower war tactic by ISIS does not mean the strength of this organization in Iraq, but rather its weakness. Since the ISIS militants are unable to directly fight the Iraqi army due to military weakness, they have resorted to military tactics and strategies that require little force. However, the Iraqi government and army must take countermeasures during the three months of summer to prevent a repeat of the tower war tactic scenario, including the following:

• Activate the intelligence effort to monitor the movements of ISIS.

• Focusing on intelligence efforts to infiltrate the structure of ISIS in order to determine its goals and plans.

• Deployment of military sectors and moving points near the areas where the high pressure lines lie.

• Installing thermal cameras to secure the towers from repeated targeting.

• The use of army drones over areas that are classified as dangerous and where repeated attacks are recorded.

• Using permanent army patrols for reconnaissance.

In general, dealing with the resurgence of ISIS and defeating its roots requires a number of measures in the political, security, military, economic and social fields, including:

• Support the formation of a stable and strong central government in Iraq.

• Enhancing the capabilities of the Iraqi security and military forces.

• Strengthening the security patrols carried out by the Iraqi army and the Iraqi security forces in the border and desert areas.

• The continuation of ground and air attacks on the main headquarters and shelters of ISIS.

• Reactivate intelligence efforts and work with local forces to uncover sleeper cells.

• Continued pressure on ISIS terrorist cells to completely destroy the organization.

• Drying up Daesh's financial resources by cutting off financial aid and not paying ransoms.

• Ensuring double protection for prisons that house inmates of ISIS elements.

• Controlling Iraq's borders with Syria and preventing the infiltration of ISIS from Syria into Iraq.

• Accelerate the settlement of displaced Sunni Arabs and return them to their areas.

• Focusing on the reconstruction of cities destroyed by the war against ISIS.

• Providing economic and living facilities for the citizens of the liberated areas.

• Solving economic problems and doubling efforts to create job opportunities for young people to prevent them from joining ISIS.

• Avoiding and preventing the outbreak of sectarian conflicts.

• Find a way to defuse religious sectarianism.

• Establishing joint Iraqi rooms with neighboring countries in order to exchange information.

Conclusion

Iraq has been suffering from an electricity shortage for decades, as a result of successive wars and the instability of the security situation in the country, as well as rampant corruption. The electricity file represents one of the most prominent service problems that Iraqis have been suffering from since the US invasion of the country in 2003, despite the spending by successive governments of more than $41 billion on the sector in the past 18 years. However, the country experiences long power outages during the summer, as the rate of power supply in some areas reaches one hour per day.

The year 2021 witnessed a wide wave of operations targeting energy towers in the governorates of Baghdad, Nineveh, Kirkuk, Salah al-Din, and Anbar. At the beginning of 2022, the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity announced that six power towers had gone out of service in Anbar Governorate, the largest city in the country, following an attack by terrorist groups, which raises fears of what was described as the war of electricity towers that Iraq suffered from last year, which may rear its head again. .

Especially since ISIS now has the ability to destroy power towers; Because it has enough manpower and money to start these operations. In particular, the new leader of ISIS also needs to launch a terrorist operation in order to gain charisma, promote ISIS in the media, and attract new fighters. Therefore, the Iraqi government and the army must redouble their efforts to prevent a recurrence of the ISIS war scenario against energy pylons.

In conclusion, it can be said that the declaration of economic war by ISIS shows the decline of its star and the decline in its ability to launch major operations, as these attacks are concentrated on easy and unprotected targets, which indicates a significant decline in its strength in Iraq. However, changing conditions and providing opportunities such as stopping the pursuit of ISIS sleeper cells, creating instability and a security vacuum, and the success of ISIS in attacking prisons and liberating its members, could lead to the restoration of ISIS strength in Iraq. However, the continued pursuit of ISIS terrorist elements and the constant pressure on its sleeper cells It may force the remaining terrorist forces to leave Iraq and head towards Afghanistan or other African countries, where there is a security vacuum and soft ground for their activity.