Grain diplomacy

Why is Ankara seeking to establish a sea corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain?

Karam Said

Regional Affairs Expert - Assistant Editor-in-Chief of Democracy / Al-Ahram Magazine

The exacerbation of the food crisis caused by the repercussions of the Ukrainian war, led by the decline in Kiev's exports of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, affected food supply chains in the world, especially Turkey. However, this crisis opened the door to a new diplomatic role for Turkey, by carrying out mediating tasks to transport grain from Ukrainian ports through its territory to foreign markets. On June 7, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced that his country is seeking to establish a safe trade corridor in the Black Sea to transport grain from Ukraine to the world, passing through the Turkish Straits. The Turkish proposal, which enjoys the support of the parties to the conflict and a large number of international and regional powers, depends on the establishment of a maritime trade corridor that allows the transfer of grain and wheat from its storage places in the fighting areas in Ukraine to the Turkish ports of the "Bosphorus and Dardanelles" overlooking the Black Sea and securing its crossing to the Mediterranean and from there to supply regions around the world.

Features of the crisis

The escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, and the failure of efforts to stop the military conflict between Moscow and Kiev, led to a major turmoil in the global grain markets. This has raised concerns about a global food crisis, as Turkey and other countries in Africa and Asia depend on imports of Ukrainian and Russian grain. It is noteworthy that Russia and Ukraine each contributed about (21%) of global wheat exports in the year 2021, while Ukraine acquired more than (11%) of the total global exports of corn in the same year. However, the military operations in Ukraine, which began Last February, it led to the difficulty of transporting grain shipments, and thus disrupting the two countries' supplies to consumption markets, due to the military operations and the difficulties of transporting grain shipments. The severity of the crisis worsened, with the disruption of shipments of Ukrainian exports through ports in the Black Sea due to the planting of sea mines in Ukrainian ports, and the Russian forces besieging the main ports of Ukraine, not to mention that the railway infrastructure in Kiev does not have the necessary efficiency to transport shipments of agricultural crops to neighboring countries, including to export markets. In this context, Turkish moves began to try to overcome the dilemma of transporting Ukrainian grain. In this context, the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Turkey came on June 8, 2021, accompanied by a naval military team. To discuss plans to resume grain exports from Ukraine by opening safe passage. It should be noted that the war also disrupted wheat cultivation in Ukraine. Which will affect the next harvest season. The winter wheat harvest in Ukrainian government-controlled areas is expected to reach 20.1 million tons, down from about 32.2 million tons last year.

Diverse motives

There are many considerations that prompt Ankara to pass the idea of a safe passage for Ukrainian grain, which can be stated as follows:

Reducing the negative economic consequences for the Turkish economy: The Russian-Ukrainian war has deepened the economic challenges facing Turkey due to sharp increases in the prices of basic food commodities, especially grains, as Ukraine comes second after Moscow in grain imports to Turkey, and according to data from the Turkish Ministry of Trade, it imports Turkey has about (22%) of wheat imports from Ukraine. The escalation of Ukraine's grain export crisis led to a rise in inflation levels in Turkey, reaching about (70%) by the end of last May. Food supply chains were exposed to more structural deficits that already existed, and the increase in food price inflation rose to (13%). %) at the end of last May, and (107%) in the past twelve months. Therefore, Turkey's successes in facilitating Ukrainian grain exports through its straits give it comfort in reducing the economic consequences of the Ukrainian crisis on Turkey, especially in food supply chains. Strengthening the external presence: Turkey's efforts to pass the idea of a sea corridor to transport Ukrainian exports of grain are inseparable from its desire to use grain as an important diplomatic tool in strengthening its regional and international presence, and neutralizing Western pressure on it in contentious files. Turkey is aware that its role as a mediator to facilitate the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, some of which represent a strategic priority in Western food consumption patterns, especially vegetable oils, provides a positive atmosphere to moisturize the relationship with the European Union, which has reached a peak of tension against the background of the warning of the annual report of the European Parliament 2021, issued On June 7, the current deterioration of human rights in Turkey, and referred to the decline of basic freedoms, democracy and the rule of law in Turkey, and the report stressed the lack of political will to implement the necessary reforms. In parallel, Ankara realizes that achieving a breakthrough in the Ukrainian grain crisis may give it a greater measure in the face of US pressure, especially with regard to the issue of Finland and Poland joining NATO, as well as Ankara's non-compliance with the sanctions imposed on Moscow. Passing the sea corridor also provides a fertile environment for exporting a different image to Turkey, and gives it a greater international presence, by sending messages that Ankara has the papers and the ability to influence the course of major global issues, foremost of which are the global food supply chains. Consolidating the benefit from the parties to the conflict: The Turkish proposal to establish a sea corridor to transport Ukrainian grain to the outside world reveals Ankara’s attempt to exploit the crisis to extract political and economic gains from both sides of the war, as Turkey believes that its proposal for the idea of a safe passage to transport Ukrainian grain abroad, under Turkish supervision and international guarantees, may It eases international pressure on Russia, which may prompt the latter to turn a blind eye to a possible Turkish military incursion into northern Syria.

On the other hand, Turkey's successes in helping Kiev to facilitate its grain exports, which represent the backbone of the Ukrainian economy and one of the main incomes of the Kiev government's budget, give it greater advantages when obtaining its food imports from Ukraine, especially wheat. In this context, it is noteworthy that the Turkish Minister of Agriculture, Fahit Kereschi, hinted at the beginning of June that his country had reached an agreement with the Kiev government to buy grain at less than the market price (25%), which was reflected in the general mood inside Turkey. And in the interest of the Justice and Development Government. Achieving an internal victory: Turkey has recently strengthened its position in the Ukrainian crisis by dealing with the Ukrainian grain export dilemma and presenting itself as a mediator to facilitate the transfer of commodity stocks and Kiev’s grain exports abroad, a trend adopted by the Justice and Development Party to consolidate its gains at home. . It seems that this trend has become a priority with the decline in the traditional balance of the ruling party and the Turkish president at home due to the escalating inflation rates, and the loss of the lira a significant part of its value, "more than 40%." Therefore, the ruling elites in Turkey see the implementation of the idea of a safe passage to pass Ukrainian grain to foreign markets via Turkey, as a valuable opportunity that can be employed in the elections scheduled for 2023 to ensure survival in power.

Not similar conditions

Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis last February, Turkey has strengthened its position as a mediator acceptable to Moscow and Kiev. However, Ukrainian grain flows through the Turkish maritime straits may face many challenges, the first of which is: that there are many security, military, and even political and legal calculations that make Ankara need a solution. Obtaining official pledges from Russia and Ukraine to establish a separate UN monitoring mechanism to be based in Istanbul, and the second: the insistence of Russia and Ukraine to proceed with the militarization of the crisis. On the other hand, Moscow opposes the arrival of cargo ships to Ukrainian ports, fearing that they are loaded with weapons, not to mention the Russian conviction that there is no problem in exporting grain from Ukraine, as the Russian president considers that the West seeks to use the issue of grain to deceive world public opinion, and mobilize international sympathy for Kiev.

Third: the continued escalation of contentious issues between Moscow and Kiev, the failure of the direct dialogue rounds sponsored by Ankara to resolve the thorny issues, and to achieve a breakthrough regarding the cease-fire, as the political will of the Russian and Ukrainian sides, which is the focal point for the success of the Turkish efforts, does not exist, and there seems to be a desire Russia in employing grain diplomacy as a pressure card in the face of Western sanctions, as well as Kiev investing it to pressure the West to obtain more Advanced weapons, the fourth of which: Kiev’s doubts about Turkey’s ability to play a mediating role in resolving the crisis of grain and seeds stuck in Ukrainian ports, and this was revealed by statements made by the director of the Ukrainian Grain Union (UGA) Serhiy Ivashchenko on June 8, when he said, “The Turkey, which is negotiating with Russia to secure safe routes for grain exports from embattled Ukrainian ports, does not have enough leverage to act as a guarantor.

potential paths

Despite Turkey's UN-backed attempts to solve the dilemma of exporting Ukrainian grain, which represents a central point of support on the global food map, and with the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, and Moscow and Kiev rushing to move forward in the militarization of the crisis, there are possible paths regarding circumventing the Ukrainian grain dilemma, which is What can be stated as follows:

The continued disruption of Ukrainian grain exports: Turkey sought to employ the Ankara government. The recent visit of the Russian Foreign Minister "Sergey Lavrov" to Turkey to solve the Ukrainian grain dilemma, in addition to the success of the Turkish president in persuading his Russian counterpart to respond to Turkey's efforts to solve the Ukrainian grain crisis. Indeed, the Russian President "Vladimir" confirmed Putin, that his country is ready to coordinate with Turkey to facilitate the export of grain without hindrance from Ukrainian ports, but the UN-supported Turkish efforts have not succeeded so far in reaching an agreement with Moscow that allows the passage of Ukrainian exports, and this scenario seems likely in light of Moscow's insistence that Its response to efforts to solve the Ukrainian grain dilemma remains coupled with the need to lift the Western sanctions imposed on it, and to stop European military aid to the Kiev government, not to mention Moscow's assertion of Kiev's commitment after its turn to the west.

A partial solution to the Ukrainian grain crisis: Turkey is likely to succeed in reaching a partial solution with Moscow regarding a solution to the Ukrainian grain crisis, as Moscow wants to reduce international pressure on it along with not losing the international and regional positions that have been neutral about the Ukrainian crisis. The severity of the food supply chain crisis in countries that depend on its imports from Ukraine may prompt them to criticize Moscow, which may prompt the latter to respond to Turkish efforts to facilitate a partial transfer of Ukrainian grain to foreign markets.

The final relief of the crisis: Turmoil in global food chains may open the door to a rearrangement of international positions regarding the Ukrainian crisis, especially with the escalation of European concern over the significant rise in futures prices for sunflower seeds, corn, wheat and soybeans, not to mention the continuous disruptions to food supply chains for a number of commodities. strategy in European markets. Therefore, the Western powers may tend to support the processes of political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, and the lifting of sanctions on Moscow to ensure the return of supply chains of Ukrainian and Russian grain to global markets.

However, this scenario seems unlikely at the present time due to the tendency of Western powers, led by the United States, to impose additional punitive measures on the government of President Vladimir Putin, including the energy sector, and the United States prevented the Russian government last April from paying more than $ 600 million from reserves. Those held in US banks for the holders of its sovereign debt bonds, in a move aimed at increasing pressure on Moscow and consuming what it has of US dollar reserves. In conclusion, it can be said that the UN-backed Turkish move to achieve progress in the plan to establish a sea corridor to open the way for grain exports from Ukrainian ports overlooking the Black Sea comes in the context of Turkey's efforts to reduce the economic repercussions on it and on the international community as well as to strengthen its presence in the scene of the Ukrainian crisis, but On the other hand, there are obstacles that represent a stumbling block to the implementation of the idea of ​​the sea corridor, which may have negative political repercussions on Ankara and its living conditions.