Iraq 2020... options and outcomes

Dr. Nima Al-Abadi

Researcher in politics and security

Since the founding of the modern Iraqi state in 1921, it has never been an honest and just expression of all the components of the Iraqi nation, and the problem of representation in power, decision and justice in the distribution of rights and duties has remained controversial, just as the identity has also narrowed and expanded by the power’s perspective of (loyals and enemies). Among the formations of the people in a process of conflict with the people, its ranges extended from unacceptability and psychological rejection to repression and internal war, and the unabsorbed state, unresponsive identity, and monopolized power remained, fueling more fragility in the public entity, and the feeling of alienation within the homeland, as well as the issue of disadvantage over The level of rights and duties, which left a country mired in poverty, deprivation and fear despite its great bounties. The paths of rejection (opposition - organized / popular) that emerged with the beginnings of the establishment of the modern state were characterized by an ideological character, and the issue of rights or even the project of a healthy state came as a late option after the ideological orientation by a long distance. ) on the ugliness of the existing power and its problems, and the question (Who rules?) consumed all this debate at its various levels, and the question (Who rules?) had no appropriate location within this throes that extended for more than a hundred years, which presented more models of power and governance without It presents successful or different experiences or approaches to how to run the state and lead the people. Although the problem of (occupation/liberation) created by the outputs of post-April 2003 Iraq, the positions and components according to it were fragmented (apparently) until the debate of (entitlement) and (worthiness) to rule was the main focus of the internal conflict that the country witnessed during more than a decade and a half. , regular with a regional and international struggle (secret and overt), overlapping intentionally and directed, to determine the paths of action (the state and power) in Iraq in an effort to employ this in the service of purposes and purposes (old and new). Estimates and understandings vary in evaluating the content and impact of this (external) path overlapping with the internal conflict due to a number of effects that undermine stability and prevent fair participation. It is (confusions and interruptions) in the course of this prepared scenario, in reality, studied and controlled steps, in a disciplined manner, and the content of the results, and there is no sudden or unexpected within this path, and that the facts are going things where they were drawn. This path offers its explanation that the process of change managed and controlled by the United States of America, directed from the heart and spirit of the major American trends that are completely equal and compatible with (Israel the idea) and with (Israel the state at a high rate), has charted its steps through the process of preparing the alternative, Which was represented by dealing with entities and parties involved in the process of change within the project of the so-called (Iraqi opposition), but with goals and outcomes different from what is included in the American project, and that the process of involving those parties in the heart of change and making it visible as its main campaign, will be the beginning of its internal erosion by scratching the legitimacy and acceptability that It represents the source of its strength and polarization by presenting it to others as an ally that is close to the core with them, pushing it to compete in a suspicious environment called democracy as a (silly joke), and then encouraging it to engage in a process of (conquering and fighting) over power and benefits while feeding and developing the effects of failure and challenges. Who developed her inherited and transmitted diseases with new infections, and made her deepen her grave with her hand day after day, while she insists on not being reviewed and held accountable, and turns her back completely on all the sounds of distress that poverty, hunger and death make in the streets of Iraq every day, and she feels a greater and more intoxicated ecstasy by drowning in The joys of power and its imaginary returns of excessive wealth that no one thinks of, and it is bent on techniques to develop corruption and multiply its returns instead of confronting it, and to find formulas and models that guarantee the process of continuing the gains in a greater way. To the extent that he freely donates the desperate defense of his executioner, and at times it breaks into him, withdrawing from the necessity of his presence in important decisive moments, leaving the corrupt reality to continue to form as he wants, and directing him at other times to talk about gelatinous alternatives or mere verbal formulations or even engagement (knowingly or unknowingly). ) in projects Undermining his interests and fragmenting his state, as happened in a large part of the demonstration activity that extended for years, and its summit was represented in the October 2019 demonstrations and beyond.

This path believes that the process of self-isolation with the same tools of democracy has brought down all (old and new actors) who do not conform to the aforementioned project (emphasizing that they are prepared and ready for this fall due to their inherited and emerging diseases), and that the idea of gradual replacement came under the covers of logical reasoning. But this track insists that it is a deliberate and organized process. This understanding develops its perspective that the stage of the angry political impasse that came as a result of the escalation of waves of demonstrations with a package of other internal and external variables, in addition to emergency factors that entered strongly on the line, the most important of which is the Corona pandemic, the collapse of oil prices and the great economic repercussions, which represented a great acceleration process for the completion of this project on His desired image, and that the foreseeable transitional phase, and the arrangements that will take place during it, through skillfully formulated messages, which is revealed by the restart of (ISIS and its sisters) and how the transitional government deals with this new operation, in addition to important achievements that will be clearly observed through A systematic exaggeration of its media marketing, it will be the appropriate entrance with which the process of self-replacement of forces (opposing and undesirable) from all components, especially the Shiites, will be completed, which means a new Iraq with a perspective that matches (in fact) the intentions of the basic force of change, and that the new electoral model and resentment The growing masses, the growing failure, and other external efforts are sufficient to transform the outcomes of the anticipated electoral process into a path that is completely different from the line of the previous process, which will be intellectually and practically consistent with the course of the deal of the century and its outputs, and all the changes that follow at the level of idea and action. Another path presents its view of interpreting the movement in Iraq after 2003 in a way that is more inclined to realism, while not neglecting the external role and its will, but the scene is not lost within the framework of a strict pre-prepared profile and believes that the forces of conflict over Iraq are adapting and striving to employ the outputs of the internal movement in a way that guarantees its interests. And that the internal imbalance and all the diseases and calamities previously referred to are rooted in the forces that have been competing and striving to rule the country during the past decade and a half, capable of enabling others (generously) to achieve their goals without the need to pay expensive bills. Based on this perspective, the inputs and outputs of the envisaged transitional process will be governed by the same previous work formula that governed what preceded it, whereby investment will be made in the mistakes and shortcomings of the ruling powers, and the irregular orientation of the public will be employed in presenting a suitable alternative project, which gradually brings the course of things closer to what is intended. And the desires of the external conflict forces, especially with the presence of emergency factors, acted very effectively in the public scene, represented by the Corona pandemic and its accompanying consequences. The summary of the scene in light of this path is the continuation of the process of scrambling between external wills and powers of interest, with more preponderance of the first over.

the second, but all of this is governed by the philosophy of flexible practical dealing with the outputs without talking about prepared scenarios and a large conspiracy project, and with this path there are opportunities to remedy and get out of it. External impact grip more than the previous picture.

The third, most optimistic, trend corresponds to many of the indications proposed by the two previous tracks, but it is unique in interpreting the ongoing process of change as a process of gradual recovery that has been achieved by a number of intertwined factors, and that this process is what will remove the forces of corruption, quotas, and spoils that ruled the country in the previous period through The agent of automatic replacement through the tools that connected it to it, and supports its vision by presenting the outputs of the demonstrations as having become a binding and pressing determinant, clearly changing the equation of power and its conditions, and forcing everyone to comply with quite a few demands, whether at the level of the new election law, the Electoral Commission, or even the conditions that On the basis of which the new ministry will be chosen, and that this recovery will take its upward path through what the transitional phase achieves for it that prepares for the upcoming elections, and which bets on a conscious sorting process that the public will carry out impulsively by stimulating its present memory of all the previous performance, which guarantees the realization of a new image, moving away from It is more about corruption and quotas, and is very close to the promising state project.

There is a track that corresponds to these three tracks, presents its approach in a different way, and reads the struggle of external forces as being based on remote investment, as it introduces a different list of changes and factors other than what was previously referred to as effective variables in the local scene, and considers that everything that has been done Presenting it as a process of suffocation and a real blockage is nothing but clever maneuvers by the holding power forces, and that the flexibility that was provided during the previous stage, including the response to the requirements of the transitional stage, is represented by political intelligence that read the circumstances and variables, and preferred partial identification over the clash, provided that these matters are absorbed through smart turnarounds.

Accordingly, the powers holding power still have the elements to continue to dominate the scene and invest in it, and that they are more prepared than others to succeed in the election game, regardless of the change in their law and commission, and that the forces of external conflict have not found a successful alternative that supports their orientations more than this existing model, as well. The fragmentation of the demonstrations, and the gradual fading of their legitimacy, to varying degrees, will keep things in the near future as they are without significant changes.