Legislative elections in Italy and the possible repercussions of the results

Khudair Abbas Al-Dahlaki

the introduction

Italy has always been characterized by the phenomenon of political instability and the short life of governments, which are often coalition governments that organize several partisan forces that are not homogeneous in ideologies and programs that are united by partisan interests that quickly intersect due to political data and the intersection of interests on the ground. The elected government that turns into a caretaker government, after which early legislative elections will be called. In this paper, we will discuss the circumstances of the resignation of Government No. 68 after World War II and the adoption of the republican system.

First - the resignation of the government of national unity in Italy

The national unity government formed by economist Mario Draghi in 2019 came after the resignation of the coalition government headed by Giuseppe Conte. In 2019, this government included several parties, the Five Star Movement (M5S), the Northern League (Salvini League) and the Forza Italia party. On July 20, 2022, the president presented Italian Minister Mario Draghi asked the Italian Senate for a vote of confidence in his government. The government gained confidence by a narrow majority, prompting the Prime Minister to submit his government's resignation to President Sergio Martella, who agreed to accept the resignation. The resignation came the day after three parties affiliated with the government coalition announced that they would not participate in the vote of confidence in his government, after negotiations aimed at finding common ground between all parties failed. Mario Draghi had assumed the presidency of a "national unity" government at the beginning of 2021, whose mission was to tackle the Corona pandemic and the economic crisis that resulted from it. However, on July 14, he submitted his government's resignation to the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, who was quick to reject it (). On July 21, 20211, the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, signed a decree dissolving Parliament in its two chambers (deputies and elders), calling for new elections to be held within 70 days as specified in the Constitution: the date confirmed in the Council of Ministers must be the date of September 25. And the continuation of the caretaker government until a new government is formed after legislative elections are held, and the dissolution of parliament is always the last option that must be taken, especially if there are many formalities before the two chambers, as is the case in this period, in the interest of the country. Early elections come under the circumstances And the difficult challenges that Italy and the international community went through in order to confront the economic and social crisis and the increase in inflation, caused primarily by the cost of energy and food.

They have dire consequences.”( ), There are political and economic factors that formed the main causes of the political crisis, which we review as follows:

1- Limited options in managing the energy crisis in the context of the economic and geopolitical crisis that Europe is currently suffering from. Italy is expected to witness a suffocating energy crisis in the coming winter in light of the growing Russian pressure with the gas card on the European Union countries that support Ukraine, led by Italy. If the main parties in the government coalition see that Draghi has failed in that file ().

2- Worries about the cost of the Draghi government's broad support for Ukraine Despite Draghi's heavy focus on tax cuts and pro-business rhetoric, fragile economic conditions in Italy persist, especially with the country's borrowing costs skyrocketing. The crisis was further complicated by the repercussions of the Russian war in Ukraine, especially with Draghi's massive support for Ukraine at Russia's expense, and a firm belief was born within Italy that what Italy is about is a result of the injection of huge funds into Ukraine, which Italy desperately needs.

3_ Disparities regarding economic policies and immigrants: The high public debt has led to slow economic growth in Italy over the past two decades, and thus impeded efforts to revive the state's wealth, and high unemployment rates.

4_ Disagreements over new judicial reforms It is possible that the controversial judicial reform during Draghi’s presidency of the government, about reducing the length of trials by 25% over five years in criminal cases and by 40% in civil cases, is one of the motives of the parties participating in the coalition towards refusing to vote on Confidence in the government.

5_Italian media revealed the existence of contacts and meetings with the leader of the Northern League party, "Matteo Salvini". He held several meetings with a senior Russian diplomatic official in Rome. Silvio Berlusconi also had a lengthy contact with the Russian ambassador on the eve of the sudden shift in his position fully supporting Draghi's stay as prime minister until The end of the legislative term In an attempt to respond to the accusations against him of collusion with Vladimir Putin, Berlusconi appeared on one of his television channels, and said: “I spoke to the Russian ambassador, Razov, who explained to me the reality of the war in Ukraine that caused the death of 20,000 victims. In the disputed areas, and that the invasion was necessary because Ukraine had been planning for some time to attack Russia.The Italian media sources hinted that it was the American intelligence that leaked news of the contacts that Berlusconi and Salvini made with Russian diplomats in Italy, which is believed to have been the reason for the change of positions during the hours. The last one that preceded the fall of the Draghi government after the lengthy meeting it held Right-wing parties in Berlusconi's house, who abruptly interrupted his vacation in Sardinia and returned to Rome ().

Second - the repercussions of the resignation of the national unity government

A- The collapse of the government will lead to more social troubles on the impact of general inflation, delay the budget, threaten the recovery of the European Union in the post-epidemic period, and push the markets to collapse. For his part, the French Minister for European Affairs, Lawrence Bonn, expected that Draghi's resignation would open the door to a "period of confusion," considering that it would be tantamount to losing "one of the pillars of Europe," as he put it.

B_ The research advisory firm (Capital Economics) stated that the next government has "strong financial and monetary incentives" to implement the reforms demanded by the European Union, or risk losing billions of euros in post-pandemic recovery funds. The "Brothers of Italy" party often blamed the European Union However, Meloni's endorsement of a "strong and joint EU response" to Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine "set her apart from some other right-wingers in Italy and Europe," said Berenberg Bank chief economist. Italy reflects "major political uncertainty", which makes it more difficult to implement structural and financial reforms.The cost of Italy's debt rose again, and the Milan Stock Exchange fell on Wednesday, in evidence of market tension over the state of uncertainty in the third largest economy in the eurozone ().

Third - the nature of the electoral system

Italy elects a bicameral parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, which has 630 members, the Senate, which has 315 elected members, and a few senators for life. A piece of legislation may appear in either of the two chambers, and for its approval it must be issued in an identical form and by a majority of each. Both chambers of Parliament are popularly and directly elected through a complex electoral system (last modified in 2005) that combines proportional representation with a prize for the largest coalition majority. All Italian citizens, starting at the age of 18, can vote in the House of Representatives elections, but in spite of that, the voter must have reached 25 years or more in order to be able to vote in the Senate elections (). The Italian electoral system is not fixed in the country's constitution. Parliament has made three major amendments to the electoral rules over the past twenty-five years. The most recent of these amendments was in 2017, when members of parliament approved the now-in-progress “Rosatellum” system, named after Ettore Rosato, a member of parliament for the ruling center-left Democratic Party, who developed This law, and this law requires granting 61% of the seats, i.e. 386 seats in the House of Representatives, and 193 seats in the Senate; proportional representation system. While 37% of the seats are elected, or 232 seats in the House of Representatives, and 116 seats in the Senate; According to the individual system for each electoral district, in which whoever gets the highest votes wins. As for the Italians who live outside the country, they will elect 2% of the seats, or 12 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and six seats in the Senate ().

Parties must win 4% of the electoral vote in order to gain a share of proportional representation seats, a precautionary measure designed to limit vote fragmentation. In the case of an alliance with some parties with larger parties within an electoral coalition, the votes of the parties that obtained a percentage of the vote ranging between 1% and 3% go to the strongest party within the coalition. Which limits the victory of any party or movement with the majority at the same time, helps the parties to enter into an expanded coalition that enables them to form a government coalition ().

Fourth - the legislative elections 2022

After more than two years of the pandemic, the outbreak of war in Ukraine, inflation, high prices and interest rates, what are the reasons why Italians vote for parties and which issues are most attractive to voters?

A_ the reasons

1_ In general, there are no less than seven major issues that drive the Electoral College as a whole to choose one party over another.

2_ For center-right voters, the main motivating factors are:

3_ For voters from the center left

4_While middle voters put sharing ideas (36%) and caring about real problems (32%) at the fore.

B _ the reasons for voting

In addition to the need for work and exorbitant prices (across constituencies, the schedule of issues of interest varies between constituencies)

1_ Center-left voters have priorities:

2_ Center-right voters focus on:

3_ Center voters care:

4_ The lower middle class and the working class focus on ():

5_ On the other hand, the middle class is concentrated

Fifth: Expectations of participation in the vote of Italians in the legislative elections

How are the voters of individual political forces formed? How do individual social strata vote? For each party, the percentage must be compared For the different social and demographic components with the weight of the same component over the total electorate. Taking into account the two main parties, it becomes clear that:

The majority of voters in the Democratic Party are male

Fratelli d'Italia voters

Sixth - Whom do Italians vote for?

The party most voted by the ruling classes (entrepreneurs, middle managers and independents)

The party with the most votes among workers and executives:

Employees, teachers and housewives:

_ retired

According to the economic level ( ).

Seventh: Categories expected to abstain from voting

Eighth - Polls’ expectations for the results of political parties in the legislative elections:

The directions of the Italian political parties vary from the far right to the far left. There are conservative, moderate and extreme populist parties that are suspicious of the European Union and hostile to immigrants, and others with a fascist ideology. These parties are allied according to partisan and electoral interests. The most prominent of these alliances are:

• The Center Movement, composed of the Union of the Center party led by "Lorenzo Chiesa", "We are with Italy" led by "Maurizio Lupi", the "Support Italy" party headed by "Luigi Brugnaro", and the Italy in the Center party headed by Giovanni Totti.

• The centre-right movement, Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party and the Northern League party (Salvini's League) headed by Matteo Salvini and a center-right program consisting of 15 points, focusing on four main files: immigration, security, pensions and taxes, Among them is the emphasis on protecting the national interest and the homeland, economic growth, and the defense of the purchasing power of families. Its parties reaffirmed their values ​​and their position in Europe, in NATO and in the West, the need for deep tax reform with a flat tax, and overcoming the Fornero law with the 41 quota, and decrees. Security, regional and presidential autonomy and all the other elements indispensable to addressing Italy's problems The center-right also emphasizes issues of strategic infrastructures, reforms such as justice and public administration, which clearly pass the need to reduce the tax burden on households and firms.

• Center-left Democratic Party, Enrico Letta, Carlo Calenda's (Movement) party and (Europe +) party, Benedetto della Vidova (Movement and Europe +) coalition

• Alliance (Italian left and the Greens), the party (Italy is alive) led by Matteo Renzi and the party (Together for a Future) led by Luigi Di Maio. According to the poll conducted by Quorum / Youtrend for Skytg24 in light of the September elections the first party in voting intentions is expected

A_ The Fratelli Italia Party, headed by (Giorgia Meloni), was founded on December 21, 2012. It is a conservative, nationalist, traditional, nativist, post-fascist, and sovereign party of personalities, most of whom were within the National Alliance. The party’s slogan is “God, the Homeland, and the Family” and affirms The sanctity of life, the "traditional family" and the values of patriotism, conservative and liberal party The party has reactionary tendencies regarding civil rights (a Eurosceptic party, and seeks to strengthen relations with Russia and Russian President Putin, and currently the party is represented by 32 members in the House of Representatives and 18 in the Senate and 6 members of the European Parliament.

B_ The Democratic Party: led by Enrico Letta, it remained steadfast above twenty points. Founded on October 14, 2007. To present a new personality to a group of Italian parties. The party's roots go back to the Democratic Socialist Party, the Democratic Left Party, and the Christian Democratic Party represented by .

C-Northern League: Led by Matteo Salvini, a political party founded in 1989 as an electoral confederation of some regional movements in northern Italy led by (Umberto Bossi), a member of the Senate since 1987 for the local representation of the League of Lombardy and secretary of the Northern League until 2012, (( )). The party's ideology is a mixture of political, fiscal and territorial federalism and a defense of northern Italian traditions. The historical goal of the party is to transform Italy into a federal state.

W_ 5-Star Movement: headed by Giuseppe Conte, the movement was established through social networks and spread quickly over the Internet through a blog by the actor "Bebe Grillo". Which he launched in 2005, and made it a platform, especially for the youth group, to discuss all political, economic, social and other issues that mobilized the Italian street against political parties. It is political because it sees itself as "clean" and is not equal to the traditional parties in power that are haunted by suspicions of corruption and abuse of power. It prefers that its name remain a populist anti-corruption movement ().

C_ Forza Italia party announced its founding on November 16, 2013 by (Silvio Berlusconi), who took advantage of the break in the post-war system of social and political representation to build a new center-right political formation that depends directly on his personality and financial resources and used populist rhetoric to gain hegemony On a center-right constituency, its traditional references and political representation have disappeared. H_Party ((Italexit): a Eurosceptic political party whose founder and leader is Gianluigi Paragone, an Italian senator and former TV journalist whose movement was inspired by the Brexit Party with the aim of taking Italy out of the European Union. In July 2020, Paragone launched his new party with the aim of taking Italy out of the European Union after weeks of Meeting with (Nigel Farage), the leader of the Brexit Party between 2021 and 2022, the party became opposed to the policies promoted by Mario Draghi's National Unity Government to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and strongly opposed the EU's digital COVID certificate.

Italia Viva is a liberal political party in Italy founded in September 2019. The party is led by Matteo Renzi, the former Prime Minister of Italy. It is considered a liberal and reformist party. The "Charter of Values" refers to republican and anti-fascist values expressed in Italy's constitution, as well as in the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.It affirms the principle of gender equality, relaunching globalization and staunch opposition to all forms of protectionism and sovereignty and has supported a more stable European political and economic integration.

D_ Article Party (1 – Mdp) (Democratic and Progressive Movement): A political party that was formed in February 2017 through a defection from the Democratic Party and was soon joined by a group of remnants of the Italian Left (SI). The party is led by Roberto Speranza. The name refers to Article 1 of the Constitution, which defines Italy as a "democratic republic based on labour" and affirms popular sovereignty. In late 2017, the party was a founding member of List (Free and Equal) (LeU), a left-wing joint list for the 2018 general election.

Y_Union of small parties make their voices heard

R_The Italian Left and Green Europe

In the various scenarios polled by Quorum/Youtrend, the center-right coalition never drops below 45%, while the center-left coalition struggles to pass 36% without a 5-star move.

Ninth - Possible future scenarios for Parliament.

Pagnoncelli polls Nando Pagnoncelli - President of Ipsos - presents a simulation of the composition of the new parliament five different scenarios: four with the current electoral law - the so-called Rosatellum - and one based on the hypothesis of a new electoral law allocating seats in proportional order and a threshold of 4% The presented simulation is a photographic one and not a future projection because it It will be risky in light of the supposed changes that may occur in the voting orientations of voters after the scenario that appears with the current crisis. But not only that, but also with regard to other elements such as alliances between political forces and defining nominations in constituencies majorities, many of which today are considered "competitive", that is, a difference between coalitions of less than 5%.

A - The first scenario - weights

The first scenario considered records the confirmation of a center-right coalition (Northern League, Fraternity Italia, List / Noi and Viva Italia) on yellow, red and green (Democratic Party, Five Star Movement and allied left lists): 211 seats against 157 in the Chamber of Deputies and 106 to 76 in the Senate. The remaining seats will be allocated on a proportional basis to Italexit (supported by 10 deputies and 5 senators) and to two possible individual "centrist" lists: Movement + Europe (10 seats in the council and 5 in the senate) and Italia viva / Italia al centro ( 8 and 4 seats). In this and the remaining scenarios, Together for the Future - Luigi Di Maio's newly formed team that awaits possible new alliances - is not included in any of the coalitions.

B- The second scenario - the variable

In the second scenario, the possible expansion of the central region to Forza Italia was considered. In this case, the parliament will not have an absolute majority and the expanded position (supported by 39 deputies and 19 senators) will be decisive in forming the government, allying with the yellow-red-green coalition (187 seats in the chamber and 93 in the senate) or with the coalition Sovereign (Northern League and the Brotherhood of Italy) to add some refugee deputies to it.

C - The third and fourth scenario - the broad coalitions

The third scenario envisions a broadening of the main coalitions, with the inclusion of two centrist forces on the center-right and the so-called "broad field" on the center-left. In this scenario, the first coalition would have a very narrow majority in both branches of Parliament: 202 seats in the House of Representatives and 101 seats in the Senate. The fourth scenario differs from the previous one only to exclude the Five Star Movement from the "broad field" and so far sets the clear majority in favor of the center-right which will assert itself with 244 deputies (against 109 of the center-left) and 124 senators (against 50).

D - the fifth scenario - the relative hypothesis

Proportional to the 4% threshold adding the two main coalition seats there would be no absolute majority and this would leave room for coalitions and other types of government formulas. From the picture shown above, it is clear that in three out of five scenarios, the center-right will prevail, and in the remaining scenarios there will be room for changing geometry coalitions, which can also be favored by the position of changing shirts or reviving new parliamentary formations and groups ().

Tenth - the possible repercussions of the victory of the right-wing forces in the legislative elections

A- There is fear and apprehension among the leaders of the European Union about the arrival of a right-wing government hostile to the European Union and close to Moscow. The parties are the neo-fascist "Brothers of Italy" (Fratelli d'Italia) party led by Georgia Meloni and the "Northern League" party led by Matteo Salvini. If they are joined by "Forza Italia", the right-wing party led by Silvio Berlusconi, expectations indicate that the right-wing coalition will get 45 to The expert (Alfio Sciarrisa) believed that "a conservative national coalition will likely adopt a twisted policy accompanied by a lot of internal tension linked to the different positions of the three parties on international issues," and warned that "it is not possible to reconsider" Italy's commitment towards NATO, but "we may witness isolated initiatives by the ruling parties that undermine confidence in our country and weaken Western policy towards Putin" ().

B_ The possibility of a decline in Italian support for Ukraine: Despite the assertion of the leader of the Italian (League) party, Matteo Salvini, that Italy's policy in the international arena "will always remain the same regardless of the next government" after the September 25 parliamentary elections. He added, "We will be on the side of democracy, freedom and peace, whoever wins the elections. We are against any war, aggression or invasion and we work for peace." Matteo Salvini announced that he would make "a contribution to end the Russian war on Ukraine," but he did not reveal the type of this contribution.

T_ It is expected that there will be a change in Italian policy towards the immigration file towards extremism, as the Northern League party adopts the goal of (zero immigration) to Italy and intensifies security work, either individually or within the European Union in combating illegal immigration, and in response to a question whether it wants to Assuming the interior portfolio to control the phenomenon of immigration, Salvini said, “I see myself where the Italians see me,” because he previously assumed the position of Minister of the Interior in the government that was formed after the elections in 2018, but he submitted his resignation after he was referred to the judiciary on charges of kidnapping immigrants from a ship on the Italian coast and causing His resignation with the collapse of the government and its resignation in 2019 Matteo Salvini confirmed that his party will return to "protecting the country's borders and achieving security because thousands of immigrant landings cannot be seen and we cannot bear the burden of thousands of illegal immigrants who flock to the country's coasts."

W_ But the phenomenon of immigration is no longer among the priorities of Italians, as the latest polls showed that the main concerns have become limited to the cost of living, high energy prices, and the increasing poverty rate due to the pandemic, so he pledged not to impose new taxes.

C- The victory of the populist right and the extreme right in the majority and the formation of the government in Italy will develop and encourage the current demanding Italy's exit from the European Union in the medium term.

  Events have proven the presence of Russia's imprint or influence on the political scene through suspicious relations and contacts with right-wing populist parties, and this is the first time that foreign affairs are one of the drivers. The actors in the battle for the parliamentary elections, which entail the formation of the Russian government in its war against Ukraine led by Putin, will be strongly present in Italy and will have direct and indirect action in the course of the upcoming legislative elections, including the Russian cyber interference, and that the energy crisis will not be out of the hands of the citizen Who goes to the polling booth carrying a voting card.

Political leaders seek to obtain electoral votes by presenting their ideas and programs, but the citizen, with his partisan loyalty, is moved by the influence of his material needs.