Climate change: reality and repercussions

Economist / Majid Jawad Al-Amir Al-Nahrain Center for Economic Studies

 Review and analysis

The global impacts of climate change are widespread and unprecedented in scale, from changing weather patterns that threaten food production to rising sea levels that increase the risk of catastrophic floods to dry up rivers.  Where that sudden and strange term is heard in the continent of Europe in particular, that the rise in temperatures as a result of the excessive use of fossil fuels with their heat emissions for the past 100 years, led to the decline in the water level in the major rivers in the European continent and the decline of green spaces in an unprecedented manner in decades, taking into account the decline of snow melt in the ice caps.

Another study published in the website (Nature) according to which the high temperatures in Europe and the accompanying drought caused by changes in the air currents that push hot air from North Africa towards Europe There is no doubt that adapting to these effects will be more difficult and costly in the future if radical action is not taken Now after more than a century and a half of industrialization and deforestation, the amounts of warm gases in the atmosphere have risen to record levels and as economies grow As the living standards of the population, the level of accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions is rising.

The 2021 IPCC report appointed by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) notes that there is widespread and rapid climate change, and emphasizes the urgent need for strong and sustainable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, as the European Union ranks third with 8% among the top 10 greenhouse emitters in the world after China, which occupies 26%, the United States, which contributes 13%, and India by Global warming has risen to 1.5°C and global emissions from carbon dioxide emissions need to fall by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching "net zero" around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions must be offset by removing carbon dioxide from the air.

There is a European retreat from the goal of reducing gas emissions by 55% by 2030, as the energy crisis is pushing European governments to return to the use of coal and fossil fuels as a result of the economic sanctions imposed by Europe on Russia and the recent reactions and the subsequent crisis in energy and food security, it is clear from this that droughts are moving faster than we expected.  This requires rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society and the economy. Energy. Industry ... Construction.. Transportation In a review of the state of drought of rivers globally, giant rivers in Europe, Asia, America and China are facing a violent drought that threatens a global food crisis from which food-exporting countries as well as countries will not be spared.

 According to the expectations of the competent sources, the severe drought affected 47% of the European continent, and two-thirds of the continent is threatened by drought, knowing that 15% of the area of Europe entered the classification of severe drought.

France has announced a reduction in the amount of energy produced by one of its reactors due to the high temperature of the water used to cool the reactors.

Spain has only 40% of its water reserves, the lowest indicator level, and this percentage decreases weekly by about 1.5%.

The Danube, which winds its way across 1,800 miles between central Europe and the Black Sea, is subject to drought, hampering the movement of grain and other trade.

The Rhine River in Germany is one of the most important rivers in the world, as it passes through the largest commercial movement in Europe because of its link to major ports, as the decline in the water level led to a slowdown in navigation in the river by 25%, which leads to a rise in shipping costs by 30%

Britain announced that 8 regions of the country had entered a severe drought.

America had a share of severe drought, as the Colorado River faces a severe drought, which resulted in two US states, California and Arizona, becoming within the circle of water danger, reaching a per capita consumption rate of 80 gallons per capita per day, reducing normal use by about 35%, and in China it raises drought

The drought of the Yangtze River, China's longest river and the third longest river in the world, has not been spared from the drought, as it is 6,300 kilometers long across China, feeds food-producing farms and operates huge hydroelectric plants (the largest source of clean energy), accounting for 18% of the sources of power generation (according to Blue Megaridge Research on the Formation of Renewable Energy).

Economic Repercussions :

·        According to a study by a number of European economic experts, droughts will affect Europe's domestic product, as it will decline by 0.5% compared to the past ten years in the field of power generation, as some energy companies have begun to take into account these climate changes by storing rainwater in the winter and storing water resulting from melting ice on the mountains in the summer, although this has become insufficient to operate a turbine .

·        The study of the organization (Christian Aid), which was released on the sidelines of the twenty-sixth session of the Conference of the States Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, where it stated that the 65 countries most vulnerable to climate change, will see a decrease in their gross domestic product by 20% by 2050 and by 64% in 2100 if the world temperature rises by 2.9 degrees Celsius.

·         Where the continent of Europe began to feel significantly the impact of climate change through the decline in agricultural production and the sense of the risk of economic collapse, and the severe decline in the production of energy from hydraulic sources as a result of the drying up of rivers, where the production of this year at the largest French companies producing hydraulic energy by 30 %.

·        At a time when Europeans are working towards reducing their dependence on energy sources from Russia, the problem of generating power from sources other than oil, gas and coal is worsening, and after the production of one of the largest French-European energy companies from nuclear-fueled plants at 40 gigawatts last year, has now reached about 26.9 gigawatts, as the company was forced to stop operating some stations as a result of the high temperature of river water that isused to cool nuclear reactors for plants.

·        European countries are facing a major crisis in the provision of gas under the European Union's decision to reduce gas consumption in order to increase stocks before the entry of winter with expectations that electric power prices will rise significantly as a result of the lack of production, one of the outputs of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

·        The climate change crisis is threatening Europe's water arteries, resulting in the loss of $80 billion from the eurozone economies .

·        In one day, freight rates rose by 30%, while the European Commission aimed to increase waterway transport by about 25% by 2030 .

·        According to data released by China's Ministry of Emergencies, high temperatures in July led to economic losses of $400 million .

Future Outlook :

·        According to the above indicators, global food production may gradually decline by 10% annually unless the causes of drought are controlled.

·        Decline in the production of fuel-used goods (cars, engines, spare tools)

·        Reducing global transport traffic (land, sea and air) as a result of  an expected rise inoil prices globally.

·        Reducing the global dumping of products outside the scope of food, medicine and governing requirements.

·        Reducing the movement of global trade gradually and by at least 20% from 2022, which affects the movement of labor and its economies directly.

·        In general, the movement of the global economy will gradually shrink at rates and percentages that may exceed 5% annually that can be increased .