The transformation of political systems towards modern civilization and its impact on terrorist organizations

Saudi Arabia as a model

Prepared by Najat Abdel Qawi Aoun

Master's Researcher, Faculty of Economic Studies and Political Science, Alexandria University

Introduction

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has faced several accusations of being a factor causing the death of Syrian, Yemeni and Iraqi people, for supporting armed groups, led by ISIS. But there is no credible evidence that the Saudi government has provided financial support to terrorist organizations.

 At the present time, it has been noted that Saudi Arabia is moving towards modern civilization and shaking off the dust of extremism that has haunted it for many years, as Saudi Arabia has come to consider ISIS a terrorist organization that poses a direct threat to the security of the Kingdom. The Saudi Ministry of Interior has officially designated ISIS as a terrorist entity and has prohibited any form of various forms of support to terrorist organizations by the kingdom's population. Saudi Arabia has taken many steps to join the world's advanced civil states.

The Saudi position on the Syrian crisis

When the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, ISIS moved quickly to create a transnational state by controlling large swathes of contiguous territory in Syria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia is said to have been the world's largest source of terrorist financing and the largest promoter of Salafi jihad, which forms the ideological basis of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, the Taliban, ISIS and others.

When the Syrian civil war broke out, relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia soured, due to its sending weapons to opposition forces, fearing that Iran would take control of Syria, and King Abdullah was the first Arab leader to condemn the Assad government in August 2011.

In the beginning, Saudi Arabia was in favor of a peaceful solution to the Syrian crisis, and did not cut its relations with the Assad regime until months after the beginning of the war, and after it became clear that Bashar is heading to sectarianize the conflict, and seeks to escalate it, not to solve it.

As a result of Saudi Arabia's awareness that the Syrian crisis affects its internal and external security, it became more wary of Syria's transformation into a battlefield that attracts killers and extremists, and when Saudi Arabia found itself loaded with the weight of defending the Syrian people, eliminating the Iranian project in Syria, and fighting the exploitation of the Syrian crisis by terrorist organizations, it was forced to provide indirect financial support to Islamic jihadist organizations so that they could fight any parties that seek to be present on Syrian soil and threaten Saudi Arabia's national security.

It was noted that Saudi citizens played an important role in funding Sunni groups operating in Syria. Hundreds of millions of dollars were transferred from Saudi Arabia to Syria indirectly in the early years of the war. Despite this, the size of the Saudi contribution to the rebel arming program against President Bashar al-Assad's army has not been disclosed, but it is estimated that Saudi Arabia was the largest contributor to arming the rebels and estimated the total cost of the armament and training efforts at several billion dollars.

Saudi Arabia's support for Syrian rebels is only the latest chapter in the decades-long relationship between Saudi Arabia's spy services and the United States, an alliance made famous by the Iran-Contra scandal that revealed that both countries provided support to anti-Soviet mujahideen in Afghanistan, as well as using them in proxy wars in Africa, as well as Syria in the early years of the Syrian crisis.

Statements related to the Saudi position on terrorist organizations

In 2014, former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki stated  that Saudi Arabia and Qatar had started the civil wars in Iraq and Syria, incited and encouraged terrorist movements, such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, supported them politically and in the media, and helped them with money and weapons.

In August 2014, some emails to John Podesta were leaked,  in one of which stated that Saudi Arabia and Qatar were secretly providing financial and logistical support in the form of aid to ISIS and other Sunni extremist groups. The leaked email also touched on an action plan aimed at eradicating ISIS, which said both Saudi Arabia and Qatar should be pressured to stop their funding.

In 2015, Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's vice chancellor, andPatrick Cockburn accused  Saudi Arabia of supporting radical Islamist groups in the Syrian crisis.

In May 2016, the New York Times reported that  U.S.-allied Saudi Arabia had spent countless millions promoting Wahhabism, the radical form of Sunni Islam that inspired the plane hijackers on September 11 and which has now fueled the idea of creating an Islamic State.

Following the 2017 Tehran attacks, Iranian authorities, such as  members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, accused Saudi Arabia of being behind the attacks.

Former CIA Director James Wolsey has described  Saudi Arabia as the soil where al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations thrive.

Iranian political analyst Hamid Reza Taraghi stated that  ISIS depends intellectually, financially and logistically on Saudi Arabia's full patronage, and that they are two sides of the same coin.

Despite all these accusations, Saudi Arabia denies claims that  it exports religious or cultural extremism, and seeks to bring about further transformations in its domestic and foreign policy, which confirms its keenness to be one of the leading countries in the region in carrying the banner of secularism in a way that does not contradict its Islamic values and culture.

Saudi transformation towards modern civilization

After intense Western efforts to pressure Saudi Arabia to end its support for ISIS and other terrorist organizations, Saudi Arabia has become a close ally of the United States and Britain in the field of counterterrorism, with the CIA describing  Saudi Arabia as becoming among its best counterterrorism partners in the world.  Saudi Arabia said it had become a close and important ally of Britain in a number of areas, particularly in the fight against terrorism, and the report considered British-Saudi cooperation vital for both countries.

The Saudi government continues to build and strengthen its capacity to combat terrorism and violent extremist ideologies, as evidenced by:

- Arresting a large number of terrorists, disrupting active terrorist cells throughout the Kingdom, and continuing Saudi security forces to confront the threat of AQAP, despite the group's reduced activity.

- Strengthen its programmes for counter-extremism and rehabilitation. These efforts included organizing seminars that refuted extremist Islamic interpretation and doctrine, as well as launching an international conference on media and terrorism.

Saudi Arabia has increased the number of public awareness campaigns aimed at educating Saudi citizens about the dangers of extremism, in order to address the growing threats to young people represented by terrorist organizations seeking to recruit them and join their ranks to become terrorist fighters like them in Syria and elsewhere.

- Saudi Arabia has worked to diagnose and remedy areas of religious extremism in society, to promote moderate religious tolerance and to grant adult women the right to guardianship over themselves. These social solutions have been applied on the ground in record time, in accordance with the correct Islamic faith, and the policies of the new Saudi vision in line with international standards that lead to economic growth in a stable Saudi society, whose components of manpower are in harmony with each other, and they are responsible for the sustainability of Saudi civilization.

With regard to Syria in particular, it has been noted that the melting of ice between Saudi Arabia and Syria has begun through:

At the 2017 Riyadh summit, Saudi Arabia announced that it disavowed the Syrian opposition.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated in 2018 that what Saudi Arabia wants from Bashar al-Assad is not to allow the Iranians to do what they want to do with Syria, and Saudi Arabia has provided support to the SDF, and met the same year with SDF officials to expand military ties.

- Lebanese statements were made claiming that Assad rejected an offer from Prince Mohammed for Saudi reconstruction aid in exchange for Syria severing ties with Iran and Hezbollah.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia and Syria were reportedly negotiating political reconciliation, with the UAE mediating. These talks included potential cooperation against the Muslim Brotherhood in the region in the future.

In 2019, he reported that Russia had begun pressuring Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries to support the readmission of Syria into the Arab League, and that Saudi Arabia was seeking assurances that Russia would reduce Iranian political influence in Syria as a prerequisite for such support.

Since February 2019, Syrian media have stopped criticizing Saudi Arabia, focusing instead on Qatar and Turkey as threats, while Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud has avoided criticizing Syria in his speeches since his appointment in October 2019.

In March 2021, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan expressed Riyadh's support for Syria's return to its Arab surroundings, stressing that the solution in Syria will only be political.

- The Syrian Minister of Tourism visited Saudi Arabia in May 2021, the first visit by a Syrian government official to the Kingdom since 2011.

Expected scenarios for the nature of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Syria in the future

Scenario 1: Saudi Arabia cracks down on terrorist organizations in Syria and elsewhere

This scenario assumes that the Saudi, Italian, and U.S.-led coalition will continue to monitor financial flows to territories controlled by terrorist organizations in Syria, Iraq, and the Levant in order to learn about changes in funding, especially in countries where wealthy individuals have a history of funding jihadist causes, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar.

Indications are that Saudi Arabia continues to maintain a strong counterterrorism relationship with the United States, and the Saudi government has condemned the activities of the Islamic State and participated in the coalition's military action to defeat the group in Syria and Iraq. Security regulations are now imposed to cut off terrorist groups' bloody activities, as the Kingdom is the leader of the Islamic Counter-Terrorism Coalition.

Saudi Arabia is currently on the path of tightening the noose around terrorist organizations, given that it is a founding member of the Global Counterterrorism Forum, and this has prompted Saudi officials to issue statements encouraging enhanced cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League countries on counterterrorism issues.

If Saudi Arabia succeeds in achieving this scenario, it is expected that Syria will return to a safe area for Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, as what worries Saudi Arabia most in the current situation is the presence of armed fundamentalist organizations in Syria, such as ISIS, Al-Qaeda and the rest of the other formations, which are a source of danger for neighboring countries, and therefore fighting terrorism and tightening the noose on its sources of funding will also serve to besiege violence, which is in the interest of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the countries that support moderation.

Scenario 2: Continued unofficial Saudi support for terrorist organizations in Syria

This scenario assumes that Saudi and non-Saudi nationals who exploit their presence in the kingdom continue to support terrorist groups. Private sponsors continue to fund the group in the Persian Gulf and beyond. Their money is not just intended for ISIS, but finds its way into the pockets of many other Syrian rebels fighting the Assad regime.

This trend has fueled the role played by the Saudi media, which takes a stance strongly opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as the media has continuously turned public opinion against the actions of the Syrian government towards the Sunni majority.

Despite serious and effective efforts to counter terrorist financing within the Kingdom, it is likely that some individuals and entities in Saudi Arabia continue to be sources of financial support for terrorist groups, as these funds are allegedly secretly collected and illegally transferred out of the country in cash, sometimes by pilgrims performing Hajj and Umrah.

Scenario 3: Create a new alliance between Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries

This scenario assumes the establishment of an alliance that includes Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, as it is noted that this trend is followed by the recent developments represented in the holding of several meetings last year that brought together officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran more than ever, which indicates the return of warmth to the tense relations between the two countries, and it is also noted that Saudi Arabia is paving the way for the return of diplomatic relations with Iran, and this is evidenced by the step taken by King Salman bin Abdulaziz not to normalize relations. The list is officially with Israel, which Iran views positively. Saudi Arabia is also engaged in efforts to bring the Syrian government back to the Arab League, an engagement welcomed by Iran, a staunch backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Recently, there have also been signs of rapprochement between Turkey and Saudi Arabia after a marked decline in relations that lasted for a few years. Looking at the two countries today, we see that there have been no significant changes in their positions on regional issues, but we note a decrease in tension and a mutual desire to upgrade relations. However, recent regional and international developments have pushed the two countries closer together. Perhaps the most prominent of these developments that encouraged the two sides to cooperate are the weakness of the US security umbrella, China's Belt and Road Initiative, economic problems, and economic competition between regional actors.

If Saudi Arabia manages to achieve this scenario, balance will be maintained in the region, in addition to the establishment of a new military and political alliance between the allied countries that will make it able to  confront  the Western blackmail that has drained the region's wealth for decades. The Shiite who was one of the reasons for the intensification of battles in Syria, the deterioration of the security situation in Iraq and the outbreak of the Yemeni crisis.