Operation "Deterrence of Aggression" Actors and Contexts

I'm an image! 2024 / 07 / Dec

The Military Operations Department of the "Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room" in northwestern Syria announced on Wednesday morning, November 27, 2024, the launch of a military operation called "Deterrence of Aggression", with the aim of directing a "preemptive strike" against the Syrian regime forces and allied groups that are engaged in violent clashes with the forces of the factions affiliated with the room in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib.

In recent weeks, there has been a near-consensus among a number of researchers specializing in Syrian affairs, security studies, and war studies on the possibility of the Syrian armed factions moving, taking advantage of the vacuum left by Hezbollah after its capabilities were depleted over the past year in the war with Israel, especially in the last two months, during which the party was subjected to strong blows in which it lost its Secretary-General, the Chairman of its Executive Council, and the majority of its Jihad Council, in addition to the middle leadership and the party's military arsenal.

Regarding the actors, two military operations emerged: "Deterrence of Aggression" and "Dawn of Freedom". The first was announced by the Military Operations Department of the Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room, which was established by Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham in mid-2019, with the aim of managing and coordinating military operations in northern Syria between the armed factions. The room consists of Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham, the National Liberation Front, which merged with the Syrian National Army, the Ahrar Al-Sham Movement, and the Army of Glory. These factions are active in Idlib and its countryside, and the countryside of Hama, Latakia, and western Aleppo.

As for the second operation, it was announced by the Syrian Interim Government affiliated with the Syrian opposition coalition in Turkey, on the fourth day of Operation "Deterrence of Aggression". The operation was launched by the Syrian National Army, which began to form on December 30, 2017, and is considered an alliance of several factions supported by Turkey and is considered the military arm of the interim government. The operation was launched with the aim of liberating (the usurped areas controlled by the Assad regime and the terrorist PKK and PYD militias), according to their announcement.

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