The Middle East did not need a new explosion after the devastating war in Gaza and Lebanon, to wake up to rapid dramatic events emanating from northern Syria, placing the region once again in front of extremely dangerous security and political repercussions in addition to the humanitarian and economic complications. The move by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (which includes a mixture of Salafist forces and Syrian opposition from different backgrounds) came two days after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect, surprising all countries concerned with Syria's affairs and fate. The surprise even extended to Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham itself and its main supporter (Turkey), as it was not expected that these forces would seize the capital of northern Syria, Aleppo, the entire Idlib province, and the M5 international highway, up to the northern Hama countryside, and take control of cities, airports, camps, and weapons within three days, while they were unable to reach them during the years 2011-2016, which witnessed fierce fighting with the Syrian army and its regional allies. The attack of the (Syrian opposition) has raised great concern and has put the countries of the region in a spiral of recalculations and repositioning based on the new data on the ground. Iran, Iraq, Russia, Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have expressed clear positions supporting the Syrian regime to varying degrees, while Turkey has dealt with what is happening with clear indifference. The developments came with its support or at least coordination, to prepare the Syrian arena for long-awaited settlements that Damascus has delayed in implementing. Some observers saw that what happened falls within the context of cutting up the so-called Shiite Crescent led by Iran and weakening it to the point of dismantling it. After the Gaza and Lebanon wars, the weakening of Hezbollah and the destruction of Hamas, it has become possible to interpret the successful attack of the Syrian opposition in contrast to the rapid collapse of the Syrian army forces and the failure of it and its supporters to stop the momentum of this attack, as a project that does not aim to divide and fragment Syria or even topple the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, but rather to pressure Damascus to replace its alliance with Iran and end its pivotal role in the axis of resistance. This potential exchange remains the scenario. Most likely, after what preceded it, Israel's war on the resistance organizations allied with Iran, and its threat to the armed factions of Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.

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