At a time when the world is focused on ending the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and the swift takeover of most of the country by the Taliban—culminating in the fall of Kabul on August 15—Iraqis are watching events closely. Both Iraqis and Syrians have suffered greatly at the hands of the Islamic State (ISIS), in addition to the devastation caused by the battle to defeat the group. They are now anxious about what this critical moment might mean for their future.

The Taliban’s return to power, at the very least, serves as a source of inspiration for extremist and terrorist groups. The Taliban now possess vast quantities of equipment, vehicles, and aircraft left behind by U.S. forces. They are highly trained and appear to enjoy more regional support than they did during their previous rule from 1996 to 2001. While they still cooperate with several known terrorist groups that recruit foreign fighters, the Taliban have also clashed in eastern Afghanistan with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the local branch of ISIS that includes former Taliban members who defected in recent years and joined the rival group.

Many supporters of extremist Sunni armed groups in Syria have long praised the Taliban, including former Iraqi al-Qaeda member Abu Maria al-Qahtani. In a 2019 interview with Al-Monitor, Abu Ali al-Basri, the former head of Iraq’s Falcon Intelligence Cell, stated that al-Qahtani—believed to be in Idlib province in northwestern Syria—“has the ability to establish a new organization” and “takes advantage of disputes between religious figures and wealthy Gulf donors.” Al-Basri added that al-Qahtani would be killed if he dared to return to Iraq.

What surprised many is that Iran seems to be more focused on preventing criticism of the Taliban than on securing guarantees from the group to protect the Shia minority in Afghanistan.