Mutual considerations. Cairo and Ankara: Indicators of Convergence and Future Paths

Karam Said / Regional Affairs Expert, Deputy Managing Editor of Al-Demokra Magazine - Al-Ahram

Turkey and Egypt.  Amr Adly indicators, the areas of calm between Cairo and Ankara are escalating, due to a number of positive indicators, foremost of which is the visit of the Turkish  Minister of Finance to Cairo to attend the meetings of the Islamic Development Bank hosted by the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh on June 4,  2022 This step was preceded by the announcement of the Turkish Foreign Minister on April 13 that his country would take steps to normalize relations with Egypt, including that his country may appoint an ambassador to Egypt as part of the normalization of relations with Egypt 1. The Turkish minister's remarks came as Egyptian and Turkish diplomats prepare in the coming days to hold a third round of negotiations to repair the tense relations since 2013 between the two countries, which escalated after the governments of the two countries supported warring parties to the Libyan war and entered into contradictory alliances in the eastern Mediterranean region.

Intense moves

Despite the continued signs of tension on the surface of Turkish-Egyptian relations, many indicators of understanding have spread during the last period between the two countries, and this appeared in Egypt's taking into account the Turkish naval claims regarding the border demarcation agreement with Greece, signed in August 2020, into account, what Ankara considered as a goodwill gesture 2. Egyptian and Turkish diplomats also met in May and September 2021, as part of their efforts to discuss the causes of tension, and the third round of talks is expected to be held during the next phase .Article for

Areas of calm strengthened as Turkey reduces support for prominent leaders of the Brotherhood

Muslims as well as forcing media platforms, which broadcast from Turkey, to stop

A significant aspect of its programs that oppose the Egyptian regime. The development in the trajectories of the relationship between Ankara and Cairo prompted the Egyptian Foreign Minister in October 2021 to cautiously praise this progress, saying in his remarks that "I hope that the two countries can build on this progress." In a clear indication of the two countries' keenness to root the truce process, the Turkish Foreign Minister stressed on the past 13 that relations with Egypt need to be corrected, adding during a speech at a government meeting, "It is very important to normalize relations between the two countries because of their importance to many He revealed that his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry will visit Istanbul during the current Ramadan, if there is no emergency.  In parallel, Cairo announced on March 29 that Turkish citizens would be granted a one-year entry facility according to specific conditions, and these facilities have already entered into force as of April 2022, for citizens of Turkey and 5 other countries, namely Pakistan, India, China, Morocco and Algeria. The features of rapprochement, and jumping on the areas of tension between the two countries, appeared with the announcement of  the Egyptian opposition channel "Mekameleen", which was broadcasting from Turkey at the end of last April, to move its headquarters outside Turkish territory. Some sources also revealed in early May that some figures affiliated with the Egyptian opposition began to leave Turkish territory, especially those who did not regularize their legal residence status there, whether by acquiring Turkish citizenship or possessing permanent residence here as 3.On the other hand, it is noteworthy that "the Turkish-Gulf rapprochement also contributed to paving the way for the restoration of relations between Ankara and Cairo, especially since the former is aware that the development of relations with the Gulf region is  linked in a significant part to improving relations with Cairo, and the latter wants not to put itself under any pressure for a greater rapprochement between its Gulf allies and Turkey, and it is noteworthy that the visit of the Saudi crown prince to Turkey on June 23 opened the doors to a new rapprochement between Turkey and  the  region.

Mutual accounts

During the current stage, Turkey and Egypt are seeking to break the state of tension and circumvent controversial files.

In this context, the most prominent motives for rapprochement can be mentioned as follows:

Balancing strategic interests: Despite the continued contentious issues between Ankara and Cairo, especially the continued Turkish military involvement in Libya, and Cairo's opposition to Turkish moves in the eastern Mediterranean, it is expected that the pragmatic approach will push the administration of the two countries not to escalate the dispute to an unprecedented degree, and return to the balance of interests, given Turkey's need for the Egyptian role in securing its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean region, as Cairo is the strategic point of reference in the Mediterranean Gas Organization, which brings together the littoral countries on the The Mediterranean basin, of which Turkey seeks to be a part. On the other hand, the continued state of political liquidity in Libya provided a fertile environment for Turkey and Egypt to devote the process of normalizing relations, as the two countries began to support the United Nations negotiations, which began in late 2020, to form a new national unity government, and the two countries became more agreed on supporting a unified national unity government in Libya. Especially in the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Building on the current rapprochement efforts and establishing calm between the two countries represents an opportunity to provide more opportunities to address the thorny issues between Ankara and Cairo and take into account common interests. Understanding regional variables: The Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement is inseparable from their desire to accommodate regional transformations, as there are common fears of a decline in their position in the regional strategy after the signing of the Brahmin Accords, and the normalization of several Arab countries relations with Israel. On the other hand, Cairo sees the importance of responding to the new Turkish trends, and its quest to zero problems with the regional powers, which was manifested in repairing the relationship with the Marat and Israel, and making significant progress in correcting the relationship with Saudi Arabia and Armenia.

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Securing economic interests: Turkey and Egypt seek to ease tensions

between them to secure their common economic interests, as trade cooperation carries

The economy is an absolute priority at this time, especially with the desire of Turkey and Egypt to

Maintain trade, as the total volume of trade between them doubled 3

times between 2007 and 2020, from $4.4 billion to $11 billion, which is

Which may reflect positively on the economy of both countries, which is suffering a major crisis due to

The decline in the price of the currency of the two countries, as well as the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, and the repercussions of the crisis

Ukrainian on the traffic of tourism in both countries.

There is also an Egyptian government keenness to protect Turkish investments in it, which

More than $2 billion and there are nearly 200 Turkish companies, of which 40

A large company that provides significant job opportunities. 5

Promoting energy projects: Ankara is aware that the current Ukrainian crisis, and Russia's tendency to

Punishing the West by Stopping Gas Supplies to Global Markets Provides an Exceptional Opportunity for Turkey

To become a carrier of Egyptian gas for European markets. Also, the relationship with Cairo

In the field of energy, it has become of great importance at this time, for several considerations

First: Turkey's fears of Western pressure on it to prevent the import of Russian gas and research

About other alternatives.

Second, Egypt has recently become an important exporter of natural gas.

Liquefied to Turkey.

Third, Turkey may face more pressure in

Its energy needs during the next phase, after the expiration of the Nigerian LNG contract at the end of last October without renewal, which was estimated to

with 1.3 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas, not to mention Turkey recording a record high

in demand for liquefied gas to reach about 60 billion cubic meters by the end of the year

2021 , against the background of strong consumption in the energy sector .

Fourth, Ankara and Cairo believe that restoring the relationship with Cairo provides greater opportunities for both parties in the Eastern Mediterranean as well as helping Turkey to protect its interests. This vision was reinforced by positive Egyptian signals to Ankara, the most important of which was on February 18, 2020, when it launched the first global tender for oil and natural gas exploration in the Gulf of Suez, the Western Desert and the Eastern Mediterranean, taking into account the Turkish continental shelf stipulated in an agreement with the Government of National Accord in Libya in 2019.

Diversifying Turkey's Partners: Exploratory Dialogue Rounds between Cairo and Ankara came in

May and September 2021, in addition to stopping statements and counter-statements between the two countries, revealing Ankara's desire to strengthen its partnerships with regional powers in the region,

Especially Cairo, especially in light of the desire of the Turkish political and military elites to return

Consider Turkey's relations with Western powers, especially the United States after

Turkey excluded from F35 fighter production program  , US Congress refused to grant

Turkey F16 aircraft. Contentious issues between Turkey and its European partners also remain.

At its most intense, this was reflected in the continued European criticism of the human rights file

In Turkey, opposition to Ankara's accession to the European Union not to mention the declaration of the EU summitto

European Union held on June 23 and 24 for its support for Greece in its differences

With Turkey .

Possible paths of the relationship

Despite the efforts made to resolve the controversial issues between Cairo and Ankara, there are

Challenges that cast a shadow over the nature of the potential paths and, in this general context,

Three levels can be referred to, to which Egyptian-Turkish relations may be exposed,

They can be explained as follows :

Level I: Overall Improvement: Moving towards a Comprehensive Improvement that Includes Addressing All

Existing problems between the two countries. But this scenario remains a low probability for considerations

Several tasks:

First: The conflicting positions of the two countries in the crises of the region, especially the Libyan crisis, and the escalation of this concern with the intensive Turkish moves in eastern Libya, and building bridges of trust with political structures in eastern Libya, which was revealed by the visit of the Turkish ambassador to Tripoli, Kenan Yilmaz, on January 19. The meeting is  the first of its kind and has resulted in breaking tensions between Ankara and eastern Libya.

Second, the rivalry between Cairo and Ankara may return, especially in light of Egypt's doubts about Turkey's presence in the Horn of Africa and its growing partnership with Ethiopia after it granted a number of drones last December to the Addis Ababa government, which disputes with Egypt, its share of the Nile River waters.Article for

Third, there is another issue of whether the Turkish president is willing

For a direct meeting with his Egyptian counterpart, especially since he hinted in previous statements that he will not

He wants to meet Sisi in person.

Level II: Stalemate of the situation  : freezing the situation as it is, i.e. without achieving any

Tangible progress in any problem, but keeping the media exchange over

Emphasizing the desire to develop reconciliation efforts, and the continuation of meetings at the level of immediate and diplomatic delegations, a scenario that ensures easing pressure on the two countries without forcing the two countries to make concessions on major controversial issues .

The third level: limited improvement: despite the escalation of tension between Turkey and Egypt, during

The past period, but this does not negate that there are counter-considerations, which may push both parties

Not only to try to control the boundaries of this tension, and not to escalate it to an unprecedented degree, in a way that could impose negative repercussions on their interests, but also to seek to reach consensus axes on some issues of common interest. It seems that this scenario is the most fortunate, for several considerations:

First: ending the state of adversary and restoring diplomatic relations at the level of the existing

By business .He said

Second: the development in trade relations, the growth rate has increased in

Trade exchange between Egypt and Turkey increased by 32.6 percent in 2021, and

The amount of goods imported and exported between the two countries by one third, equivalent to 1.6

An additional billion dollars in the volume of trade between the two countries. On January 21, an Egyptian delegation visited Turkey, and it was agreed to increase investments between the two countries.

Third: The positive attitudes of the Turkish leadership, as the Turkish president confirmed in statements

in November 2021 that his country will take steps to improve relations

With Egypt  .

Fourth, local developments in both countries could represent in the future.

Proximity is a momentum to achieve a limited improvement scenario. While you do not oppose

Cairo normalizes relations with Turkey on condition of non-interference in its internal affairs, no

The Turkish opposition carries anti-Egyptian tendencies. Not a few voices are also raised.

Within the Justice and Development Party, on the need to develop Turkish foreign policy regarding

The countries of the region, especially Cairo, Syria and Libya.

In conclusion: It can be said that there are mutual indications of strengthening the efforts of rapprochement between Egypt

And Turkey during the current stage, and in the forefront of which is Turkey's announcement of new steps

Towards Cairo, which has shown a remarkable response to Turkish trends, and has also provided anarticle for the current Turkish efforts a fertile environment to promote rapprochement, especially since Ankara has recently turned

Towards besieging the Egyptian media platforms that broadcast from Istanbul, not to mention that

Cairo took into account Turkey's maritime interests when signing maritime border demarcation agreements

With Greece . At the same time, Turkey is aware that rapprochement with Cairo guarantees its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and contributes to addressing Turkey's regional and international vulnerability. The Ukrainian crisis has also become a pressure card on Turkey in terms of repairing the relationship with Cairo, as there are Turkey's fears of escalating Western pressure to prevent the import of Russian gas. Therefore, Ankara believes that rapprochement with Cairo could give Turkey a greater opportunity to promote energy projects with Cairo, especially converting it as a carrier of Egyptian gas or at least securing its import of Egyptian gas, for example. Among other things, despite the challenges that prevent achieving comprehensive improvement, there are indications that there are increasing opportunities for limited improvement between the two countries, including Turkey's announcement of its desire to appoint an ambassador in Cairo, and the statements of the Turkish Foreign Minister about a possible meeting in Istanbul during Ramadan with his Egyptian counterpart.