The prospective Iraqi government between the Qat of the inside and the constraints of the outside

Dr. Mohammed Hashem Al-Battat / Professor of Political Science at Al-Mustansiriya University

Turninga hand on the identity determinations of the person whoescaped to  win the post of prime minister in Iraq, and then  the  formation  of the Iraqi government  with difficult labor as usual, the  complexity of the  Iraqi political scene  leads to the  recognition of the existence  of a set of internal constraintsandexternal constraints on the blocs.The political situation in Iraq should be taken into consideration if  it wants to be able to pass the  process of  forming the new government, and what is happening in terms of the differences in views on the personalityofthe coordination framework (MohammedDr. Shia Al-Sudani), and  the current escalations By the masses of the political trend in the Green Zone and elsewhere, there is no imbalance  in the personal identification of the sprinkler H, no matter how much it is covered by the media's passages  on the groundas well, in other words,   the political blockage  in the process of forming the government goes beyond the name of the sprinkler.  H to the Prime Minister, is it (X) or (Y), yes, the  person who is sprinklerH may contribute to a certain degree to the blockage or détente, but  this does not cancel the exponential attachment to other major factors and indicators  that must be paid attention  to if I want to distance Iraq and Iraqis from the chaos and dialectics of war.

 With Qat inside Iraq, who will win the bet?

The Iraqi political scene  is mired in its problems and multiplying complexities, and then there are many challenges that the Iraqi  government  must address according to a conscious  scientific strategy, and not the usual improvisations or sweets  not  patchwork within the rule of (deporting crises not zeroing them) or(anesthetizing wounds not treating them).However, the main obstacles that precede what the next  government must  do to survive are the obstacles that the prospective  government must  address to exist, that is, for the government  itself to pass and  see the light, and  the most prominent of these obstacles  within the internal map are In finding a real understanding that guarantees the element of containment of the current of the current      is  not over yet, but  is still in its infancy, and the suggestive Friday prayers held by the Drion, and the storming of the headquarters of the Iraqi  Council of Representatives  and the sit-in in it,Early escalation in determining who will win the bet.

 It is a political   flatness to argue  that the  mass resignation of the deputies of the Iraqi Council of Representatives  represents a political act, as much as it is an amendment in the rules  of political play.From  political negotiation under the   dome of parliament to  negotiation with the pressure card through the Iraqi street, which means the need to find  a political agreement  that guarantees the current an acceptable ceiling of  demands, not least understanding in the form  of  Salahi for the next government, even if it is short, reassures the people  that  their waiting for the next elections will not last for four years, in addition togiving guarantees about a form of government that differs from the previous one in terms of characters, visions and program.

It is not possible to say that reaching  such  an agreement is  going in light of the current data, but it is not impossible if it is thought of ways out of the political crisis away from tension, and it is mandatory to get out of thinking with the zero-sum game mentality, for both parties, because such a type of conflict does not benefit political thinking    Zero, but rather reducing the ceiling of demands, realistic visions, and  logical desires, by all political parties  can  indicatea good start to political action  that leads to a government capable of passing, and political bets  must  gain their relative gains, and must be made Through compromises that take into account the will of the people, winning  the political bet  means in its most extreme sense "the highest relative gain."

The samething is said for  the political parties  of the Syrian and Kurdish despite their differences,  they are burdened with differences and  growing political rivalries, as the three  major  companies are suffering under the weight of bilateral divisions that doubt their current status of major obstacles  .It can be said  that  these dualities within the three major Mekonates can be transformed  into a   positive phenomenon, if they manage to lead in the coming years into (major) bilateral alliances that include a soft representative of the three Makku Nat, enter the elections. Then  it is possible to overcome a prominent situation in front of the next government, with conflicts (the majority-al-al-a-faqih), and  with  the (inclusion of the majority of the three components, notonly one), i.e. doubts the tripartite alliance that won the majority of parliamentary seats in thenext one, while the alliance is The losing trio in the opposition, then a relative way out ofthe main problems in the current  Iraqi scene can be found  .

The constraints of the Iraqi external,  the reassurance of the lost:

Since the American occupation of Iraq  in 2003,  and the  forced change that took place and the overthrow of the regime of the grave tyrant, international  and regional  actorshave been interfering, influencing  and pressuring internal actors according to  zigzag curves (up and down)  according to external desires that have formed (constraints) inside Iraq. To take it into account, no future Iraqi government can  guarantee for itself the passage without obtaining an acceptable degree  of understanding with external actors, and that the absence of  such trivialitymeans flooding Iraq with crises, and then  increasing the burden of qat, and it is enough to notice allWhat happened was a difference in views between  the Iraqi government and one of these actors, the  level of internal crises towards the government increased, which certainly does not reveal a secret about  the extent of external influence in the Iraqi scene.

It is important torefer to the Iraqi political behavior  because it did not convincingly and effectively understand the nature of dealing with the outside, as the  process of managing international balances in the Iraqi arena  needs  a  state of realistic reassurance to external actors that the  Iraqi government  does not antagonize these actors. The previous Iraqi governments, in the sentence not the sentence, tend to one party withoutanother significantly provokes the other party, and makes it useful for the tools of internal influence to change  the political equation to  a situation that suits it, and it is not related to the fact that the political inclination  of  this bloc A and that  , the tendencies The political situation is a fait accompli,   and the  political culmination is notideological, a fixed fact, andwe are talking here about a strategy(cognitive reassurance of external actors), orreassuringthe  foreign political person that The international balance is taken into account, and this is dictated  by political realism, or  talking about the lackof interventions, or the possibility of absolute distancing from Iraq and its young experience fromothers, these are wishes we wish, but not everythingthat the "people" wishes to realize, as the lack of politics is driven by data andconstraints, not by wishes.

From here, we must emphasize the missing reassurance, and search for indicators that contribute to  finding it if I want to work onpassing a new government that contributes, even partially and temporarily, to solving the current complexities in the political situation.  The internal negotiations to understand the acceptable solutions to their obstacles, and at the same time   , work to activate the external negotiations to agree on the acceptable limit  of  constraints to reassure the various external parties on the acceptable limits of difference within the Iraqi scene;  It is more complex for the deep extent of overlap and entanglement between external and internal visions, and the factors affectingthe Iraqi scene  in general.