Finland and Sweden precautionary accession

Assoc. Prof. Dr.Thir Nazim Al-Jasour.

Today, thecontinent of Europe is going through a very difficult stage, where the atmosphere of the repercussions of the Ukrainian war, which affected various levels, the most important of which is economic, which has become its biggest concern, accelerating the events resulting from the outcomes of the conflict in Ukraine and the levels of danger that all European countries feel, specifically near the Russian border, which has become a border that  carries with it  great risks, in addition to the Russians becoming an unsafe neighbor. As a result, the European countries that fear that their continent will be a battlefield so that they may go back to the two world wars, not the cold one from the intensity  of the conflict, and with the extreme violence in the blows directed by Russia to Ukraine, which some call the scorched earth policy and what Ukraine has reached after it became a victim of competition between the East and West, European countries were looking to ensure security and protection in order to To keep them away from the danger of destruction at the very least.

European governments today are looking to ensure the security of their countries from the Russian threat, in this formula, dealing with the Russians will be of two factors, the first is doubt in intentions and the second is to plan in advance for any progress or direction that is coming, so there are European countries that are part of the umbrella of NATO and others are trying to join after thinking, deciding and preparing according to the specifications required by the alliance from those who joined it, the idea of joining some countries was not one of their priorities as much as arranging the internal situation and modifying their foreign policy paths and controlling But with the beginning of the Ukrainian war and until today, there are risks that are not related to the seriousness of the alliance's expansion to the regions of northern and eastern Europe as much as trends related to energy, navigation, economic and banking policies,  given that the economy has become the most important foreign policy factor for countries throughreading the changes witnessed by the   global system But this does not mean that countries do not show their political and military readiness to deal with the changes of events or rapid changes in this or that point.

 Today, the point of conflict is Europe, and it  may be considered one of the new transformations of the  international system through the emergence of new problems that work to crystallize a new policy followed by countries among themselves, which may include the return of alliances or the return of proxy wars directed by major powers, and this is what all powers fear because alliances mean the return of tension, which makes the world live in a state of poles that will determine trends in dysfunctional areasIf we talk about proxy wars, it means that the world will face various dangers, the most important of which is the large size of groups outside the control of states, which will be directed according to the adoption of the dominant and directed forces, and with the presence of this scenario or others, the world will necessarily witness a rapid change in the process of dealing with crises, regardless of the different tools and means used in them.

After all that has happened and what will happen, the countries close to Russia certainly today feel a great danger from being adjacent to this force, which has become undisciplined and deals with events from the standpoint of the military capabilities it possesses, especially since the war in Ukraine showed that the Russians are not serious about fighting this battle in its political and diplomatic aspects and are continuing to achieve their goals through force and military aggression, this gave clear signals to other European countries very close to the event that the current danger is not excluded The Russians no longer respect the adversary, not even the sovereignty of countries, as long as it does not correspond to their interests in the world and in order to regain their control over their former areas of influence  under the pretext of the expansion of the alliance, the spread of the missile shield, threatening Russia internally and externally, and working to neutralize it and marginalize its role in the system.

Therefore, Finland and Sweden today have the  same feeling, even more dangerous than the one that affected the political class and the general public in Ukraine  before the beginning of the war for what I saw and touched from this invasion on the one hand,  and on  the  other hand,  Finland sees that it is linked with Russia within 1300 km. It is located in the north of the continent, where Russia is distinguished from others in the possession of troops and stationing, as well as the fear of Russian orientations, which if it succeeds in its progress in Ukraine, this victory may tempt it to go to other countries, or its stumbling may be a reason to search for other points to be a confrontation arena through which the United States and its allies are dispersed, as a result, Finland in the first place and then Sweden want  to join NATO to search for European and global security guarantee. Ukraine lost it, aware that even if it declares neutrality, there is no escape from the danger of being part of this conflict, so there is no solution for it except to be under the umbrella of NATO and ruled by intervention if all Finland and Sweden are attacked by any power in the world in accordance with the text of Article V of the Charter of the alliance, and this helps at least to include the security of the two countries from attacks on the one hand and rethink by adversaries before starting With any move towards the NATO countries, these countries are not ready to live the scorched earth policy and have their citizens displaced in different countries fleeing the danger of war, etc.

The indicator of ambition of the Russians is  clear through the insistence on continuing their invasion of Ukraine, which is just around the corner devastated, the number of deaths is high and the infrastructure is destroyed, and with all this Russia is not satisfied with it, but has gone further to recruit mercenaries to fight alongside its regular ground forces, these and other measures certainly make countries such as Finland and Sweden try to enter the alliance and work to strengthen its capabilities in the region in order to reduce the Russian threat to it, also all these two countries are working To achieve  security-military integration  with the NATO countries, especially the United States, which is supposed to be the strong guarantor of any Russian aggression, measuring the degrees of danger for Sweden and Finland is not limited to economic loss or going to a dialogue table that they may not be able to keep up, but rather it is an issue of existence no more, so joining the alliance The North Atlantic is a guarantee of its internal security and stability and its protection from external aggressions under any different names.

On the other hand, the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO   will give a strong impetus or impetus to its defense forces in the European North, especially since  Russia surpasses NATO in terms of the size of the forces at this point, in addition to the air force for Finland and the navy for Sweden, and contributes to strengthening the presence that works to achieve the goal of besieging Russia despite the risks surrounding this measure, but on the other hand, this request arouses the interest of both European countries and the United States in particular because of its consequences that serve their interests and help them overcome the mistakes made with Ukraine, and allows the United States to work to extend its influence in the Nordic region and open through Finland at least a front line and a threat to Russia and even its allies there.

The other side of the conflict is Russia, which certainly believes that it is necessary to get rid of the idea that it will be besieged and cannot achieve its regional and global dream, because these areas are vital and have taken a large part of Russia's strategy and awareness of them, and the issue ofbesieging it has become serious if it does not take the position and steps that help keep conditions as they are, and that limiting Russian progress in various fields has become a European strategy. Therefore, the conflict has become at this accelerated pace that carries with it signs of the expansion of the war, which in turn will not serve the current Russian orientations and at this particular time, as a result, Russia is forced  to face such demands and seek to reduce and fight them because it feels more than ever that its security and stability are threatened and that the elimination of its strategy is imminent, and since it is still preoccupied with the Ukrainian war, which is one of the most painfulThe big push that Russia has been involved in is that the demand of border countries to join NATO is in itself a threat to it and to the core, because it will necessarily work to disperse its political capabilities in the first place  and  also militarily, and therefore these issues will actually exhaust it, so Moscow has threatened that it will take retaliatory steps of a military nature. A technique to reduce the threat to its national security, but the question here is whether Russia is able to open more than one front at the same time?, and does it have the ability to attack Finl and Sweden if they join NATO?, the truth is that Russia cannot enter a very long war on more than one front, and this is what the Western powers are betting on, but the Russians will play on the card of allies in other distant regions. About the real conflict zone, such as the Middle East, for example, or the Russians are trying to divide the battlefields between a regular army and mercenaries, as well as relying on their supporters in those countries, this is in a solution that Russia went to a military solution, but if we assume that Russia is satisfied with threats and mobilization on the borders and fear of fighting open wars with Western powers led by the United States, it will resort to cyber warfare at first, which makes it try to control this space in the first place and then move towards an operation The slow incursion through which it tries to trim the nails of the United States and European countries in terms of pressure on the supply of energy and its allies, and to hit the interests of Western powers in the Persian Gulf after relying on  their allies there and  other powers that help strengthen their position in this region, and work to secure the side of China, which shares with them the transformation of the international system and the change of roles in it.

All the consequences of joining are nothing in the event of joining due to  considerations of NATO's large geographical area and an increase in its security-military tasks  that  allow it freedom  of movement and stationing, so we are facing a new crisis that differs in terms of doubt and content from the Ukrainian and the parties, participating and competing and conflicting parties will resort to more threat options.