Executive Summary

Turkey's domestic politics is witnessing notable developments towards resolving the issue of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union. These developments began with an unprecedented handshake between the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, and members of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), a Kurdish political party, in October 2024. Bahçeli called on Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, to urge his supporters to lay down their arms and start a peace process in Turkey.

Following these developments, a delegation from the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party visited Öcalan in his prison and conveyed his message. Öcalan emphasized that "if the conditions are right, I have the theoretical and practical ability to move this process from the level of conflict and violence to a political and legal one."

Iraq has banned the activities of the PKK, as it is considered a source of tension in Iraqi-Turkish relations and the reason for Turkish interventions in northern Iraq. Thus, resolving the PKK issue internally could enhance Iraqi-Turkish relations, especially since the presence of the PKK could pose a major security threat to the "Development Road" project that Iraq is working on.

The Iraqi government can politically support Turkey's new initiative to resolve the PKK issue. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Kurdish parties such as the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) can also play an important role in facilitating a settlement to resolve the Kurdish dilemma in Turkey. However, the solution to the PKK issue within Turkey should not come at the expense of Iraq, particularly in terms of the PKK's members relocating from Turkey or Syria to Iraqi territories, as this would pose a threat to shared Iraqi-Turkish interests, especially the "Development Road" project as well as energy transportation.

Introduction

Turkey's domestic politics has seen a significant development in the context of efforts to resolve the issue of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is banned in Iraq and classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union. This issue has been a major cause of internal tensions and ongoing attacks in Turkey, both along its borders and in major cities like Ankara. Over the past 40 years, the PKK has caused the deaths of 40,000 people in Turkey. Since its founding, the PKK has sought to establish a Kurdish state or gain autonomy in Turkey.

On October 1, 2024, during the opening of the new legislative year of the Turkish Parliament, a historic handshake occurred between the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, and members of the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). On this day, Bahçeli publicly called on Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned PKK leader, to lay down arms and start a new peace process in Turkey.

In response to Bahçeli's call, the Turkish Ministry of Justice allowed a visit to Abdullah Öcalan for the first time since 2020. A delegation from the HDP conveyed Öcalan's message, in which he expressed his willingness to support this new approach. Öcalan stated, "I possess the necessary ability and commitment to make positive contributions to this new approach supported by both Mr. Bahçeli and Mr. Erdoğan." He also declared his readiness to take the required steps. In turn, the HDP, which conveyed Öcalan's message from the Imrali prison in Istanbul, stated that Öcalan's remarks could change the future of Turkey and the region.

The future of the current peace process remains unclear, despite calls and the Turkish government's desire to move forward. While it is still too early to predict the outcome of the peace process, which has not officially begun yet, previous attempts have failed due to a lack of seriousness from the parties involved and internal and regional political developments. However, this process, if successful or unsuccessful, will have a significant impact both within Turkey and on neighboring countries (Iraq and Syria), where the PKK is active. While there are no exact figures on the number of PKK members, some estimates suggest the PKK has around 60,000 members, supporters, and sympathizers.

Timing of the Call for a Political Solution to the PKK Issue

This event, which seemed unusual in Turkish politics, was followed by further explicit calls from Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, to dismantle the PKK organization once and for all. He even suggested that the PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, deliver a speech before the Parliament within a meeting of the HDP group, which caused a significant stir in Turkish political circles. The importance of this call is magnified considering that Bahçeli leads a nationalist party known for its hard stance on national issues and its commitment to Turkish state identity.

These moves coincided with statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who spoke about his vision of a "new Middle East." Against this changing regional backdrop, Bahçeli's statements seemed to strengthen Turkey's internal front and show a unified position against regional challenges, particularly those related to the Kurdish issue.

Bahçeli's remarks can also be seen as an attempt to block any external interventions that might exploit the Kurdish issue, whether within Turkey or the region at large, under the guise of defending Kurdish rights. Despite being unexpected, this initiative reflects a political understanding of the sensitivity of the moment and the importance of maintaining stability within Turkey in the face of regional developments. With the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the rise of Turkey-backed groups there, Turkey is working on solving the Kurdish issue. However, it is still unclear how developments in Syria will affect Turkey's peace process.

Although the calls for a peace process and the urging of the PKK to lay down arms were initially justified by regional developments and surrounding conditions, Devlet Bahçeli, an ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, connected these developments to the necessity of Erdoğan staying in power. Bahçeli justified his position by stating that Erdoğan possesses the experience and ability to manage the country and navigate through the sensitive phase Turkey and the region are facing.

In this context, Bahçeli emphasized the importance of securing Kurdish support to pass a constitutional amendment that would allow Erdoğan to remain in office for an additional term or return to the office of prime minister if Turkey reverts to a parliamentary system. This proposal reflects a political direction aimed at bolstering leadership stability in light of regional and internal shifts, while also striving to balance the need for internal peace with the guarantee of continued leadership from an experienced figure. It can be said that the new peace process is primarily linked to the constitutional changes that the AKP and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, are pursuing to secure a new presidential term for Erdoğan.